Portugal Election: Centre-Right Wins, Far-Right Chega Surges

Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) secured victory in Sunday’s early parliamentary election but again fell short of a majority, deepening political uncertainty. AD, led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, won 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, nine more than the previous election. However, this still leaves Montenegro reliant on unstable, piecemeal support to govern, as he reaffirmed his refusal to ally with the far-right Chega party.

The election was triggered after Montenegro’s minority government lost a confidence vote in March, following controversy over his family’s consultancy dealings—a charge he denies. Voters appeared to reject the Socialist-led ouster, with the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) falling to 58 seats from 78. Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced his resignation after the results.

Chega, an anti-immigration party founded in 2019 by Andre Ventura, matched the Socialists with 58 seats, a remarkable surge that outperformed most polls. Final rankings may shift after overseas votes are counted, potentially placing Chega in second place—a historic setback for the Socialists, who have consistently ranked in the top two for nearly four decades.

Political analyst Adelino Maltez called the result a sign that Portugal’s era of bipartisanship is ending, suggesting a potential grand coalition between AD and PS to stabilize governance. However, Montenegro insists on forming another minority government.

Chega’s growth has disrupted traditional voting patterns, even winning in southern districts long dominated by the left. The election, shaped by concerns over housing and immigration, adds to a decade of fragile governance.

Portugal’s recent economic success—including EU-leading growth, budget surpluses, and debt reduction—could now be jeopardized. Ongoing instability may stall key initiatives, including lithium mining and the long-delayed privatisation of national airline TAP.