RBA Set to Hold Rates in September as Markets Eye Bullock’s Guidance

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.60% during the September 30 meeting, as inflation remains stickier than anticipated. The central bank has already cut rates by 75 basis points in 2025, but policymakers are now treading cautiously amid signs of persistent price pressures.

Markets will closely watch Governor Michele Bullock’s commentary for clues on future rate cuts. While labor market growth has softened, unemployment remains steady, and second-quarter GDP growth was solid. However, the RBA continues to flag risks from sluggish global demand and trade disruptions.

Stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) readings for July and August have raised expectations for a robust third-quarter inflation print, making a September rate hold the most likely outcome. Analysts at ANZ expect no change in September but see a potential 25 basis point cut in November if data supports easing. Still, they caution that recent inflation spikes could push the RBA into a more hawkish stance. Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and NAB share similar expectations of a hold this month, though NAB predicts the next rate cut won’t arrive until May 2026.

For markets, the ASX 200 remains in focus after rallying to record highs in August on optimism over easing monetary policy. The index sits just 200 points below its peak. A dovish signal from the RBA could propel the ASX 200 to fresh records, while hawkish rhetoric may trigger profit-taking. Bank stocks, in particular, are seen as beneficiaries of lower rates due to stronger credit demand.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has held firm, supported by global risk appetite and stronger commodity prices. AUD/USD recently touched an 11-month high but has since eased slightly. Analysts suggest a cautious but steady RBA stance may lend further support to the currency, especially if rate cuts are delayed.