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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced a range of significant measures on June 6, 2025, including the reduction of repo rates by 50 basis points to 5.5% and from 100 basis point reductions in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 3%. An injection of roughly 2.5 lakh crore into the banking system is anticipated with the help of the CRR cut to boost credit growth and liquidity. The RBI changed its stance from 'Accommodative to neutral,' as it now prioritizes economic growth and reduces inflation risks.
A soft food inflation outlook and benign core inflation have led the RBI to lower its CPI inflation forecast for FY26, down from 3.7% earlier reports. While the FY26. The projected 6.5% growth in GDP is not materializing, as the actual growth declined to 6.6% in FY25, marking the lowest growth rate in four years due to global pressure and weak domestic demand. The central bank attributed the aggressive rate cuts to an early victory over inflation, with April CPI reaching 3.2% and inflation staying below 4% for three months.
The monsoon's early onset and a benign inflation outlook provided additional support for this decision, while global uncertainties and weaker growth projections were still present. The intention behind the frontloaded rate cut is to maintain growth and support the economy during a time of global deceleration.
USDINR pared some of its gains despite RBI 50 bpbs. It hits an intraday high of 85.98 and is currently trading around 85.65.
Technicals-
Major resistance- 88
Near-term resistance - 86.10
Minor support- 84.75, 83.75
Trend reversal level- 83
