Renault’s Strategic Shift: How Low-Cost Gearbox Technology is Fueling Growth in Europe's Hybrid Car Market

Renault CEO Luca de Meo is making strategic waves in Europe’s burgeoning hybrid car market with a pioneering low-cost gearbox technology. This approach not only provides Renault with a competitive edge but also gives the French carmaker essential breathing room as it navigates the challenges posed by the electric mobility transition.

Demand for Hybrid Cars vs. Electric Vehicles in Europe

Despite the European Union's impending ban on combustion engine vehicles slated for 2035, the demand for high-cost electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe has not gained the momentum expected. This lack of enthusiasm is putting immense pressure on the automotive industry across the continent. However, Renault, which faced record losses in 2020, is displaying unexpected resilience in the hybrid vehicle segment—combining both thermal engines and electric motors.

In the first eight months of the year, Renault's hybrid models, including the Clio and Captur, experienced a remarkable 55% increase in sales compared to the previous year, outperforming the European Union average increase of 21.1%, according to preliminary figures from Renault and data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). This growth surged to 60% in the first half of the year, propelling Renault to become Europe's second-largest hybrid car manufacturer, trailing only Japan’s Toyota.

Analyst Confidence in Renault's Hybrid Strategy

"Renault seems to be doing exceptionally well," noted analysts at Stifel after the company reaffirmed its business targets on October 8. It stands out as one of the few traditional automakers not revising its forecasts downward amid challenging market conditions. “We believe the company is simply more versatile and agile than its competitors,” they added in their analysis.

Maintaining strong sales in hybrid vehicles, which are more affordable than fully electric options yet significantly cleaner than traditional combustion engines, could allow de Meo to reduce overall emissions for the group while enhancing sales in the near term.

Future Prospects for Hybrid Vehicles

Demand for hybrid vehicles is projected to persist through the end of this decade, as fully electric vehicles continue to gain traction, according to insights from Dataforce and S&P Global. With a market capitalization of €11.6 billion ($12.68 billion), Renault is valued at only a quarter of European market leader Volkswagen. This smaller size may allow Renault to be more agile, although it could also make the company more susceptible to increasing competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.

Renault, which is 15% owned by the French government, is also seeking a new strategic direction following the end of its two-decade-long alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi and the abandonment of a planned IPO for its electric vehicle subsidiary, Ampere.

Innovative Low-Cost Gearbox Technology

The secret behind Renault's recent success in the hybrid market lies in its mastery of innovative gearbox technology. A century ago, Renault was a pioneer in this field. Today, its engineers have developed a simplified "dog clutch" system that connects and disconnects gears without the need for a complex synchronizer system. This low-cost hybrid transmission, known as E-Tech, requires fewer components than traditional dual-engine setups, making it lighter and more affordable.

The E-Tech system can be implemented across all Renault models, signaling a significant competitive advantage. Investor sentiment reflects this optimism, as Renault's shares have risen 6.4% this year, in contrast to a 12% decline in the European auto share index.

"Renault is particularly adept at balancing between battery electric vehicles and hybrid transmissions compared to its competitors," remarked Philippe Houchois, an analyst at Jefferies. Analysts anticipate continued growth as Renault plans to introduce more affordable models. Notably, Renault's hybrid Clio is priced €400 higher than the Toyota Yaris and Peugeot 208, yet it offers superior performance, thanks to the versatile E-Tech gearbox system.

Challenges Ahead for Electric Vehicle Sales

Renault's impressive performance in hybrids, which are less harmful to the environment than traditional cars, is vital for meeting the EU's stringent CO2 emission regulations. According to Dataforce, Renault's E-Tech hybrid models emit as low as 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer, enabling the company to achieve an average of 114 grams in the first half of 2024—better than Ford and Volkswagen's averages of 123 grams and 125 grams, respectively.

However, Renault's strong position in the hybrid market may only be a reprieve. European car manufacturers must reduce their average CO2 emissions to 94 grams per kilometer starting next year. To meet these limits, Renault will need nearly 20% of its sales to come from electric vehicles, a challenging target given that EV sales currently account for only about 12% of its total brand sales in Europe.

Having been an early adopter of electric vehicle technology in the past decade, Renault now faces fierce competition from dedicated electric vehicle makers like Tesla and larger rivals such as Stellantis.

The Road Ahead for Renault

As Renault prepares to unveil a new electric SUV, the Renault 4, at the Paris Auto Show on October 14, it also aims to capitalize on the recent launch of the Renault 5, another compact electric vehicle. "Increasing hybrid sales instead of thermal vehicles can only improve their position. However, the key to future success will also lie in the successful launches of both the R5 and R4," stated S&P Global analyst Antoine Giraud.

In summary, Renault's focus on low-cost gearbox technology and hybrid vehicles positions the company well for navigating the challenging automotive landscape. While the shift towards electric vehicles is inevitable, Renault's current strategy offers a promising path forward in the short term.