Greater tolerance for CNY weakness against the USD is likely to support the ebbed capital outflows moving ahead. The outflows might have risen in November.
These are evidenced by a notable decline in PBoC FX Reserves of $87bn in November despite some valuation effect, a $35bn drop in net FX purchase option and a widened deficit in net FX sales to $55bn.
Adding to it, the recent hike by US Fedcould lead onshore corporate to accelerate their repayment of external borrowings. There is also scope for increased overseas investment by residents led by households necessity of risk diversification, and reduce home bias and seek higher returns.
"This could be facilitated by further financial liberalisation - ie, allow more outward portfolio investment through the planned QDII2 scheme, in our view", says Barclays in a research note.
