Ruble bulls are in retreat, trade set up attractive

After weeks of marching, it seems that Ruble bulls are finally in retreat for now. Ruble bulls gave up gains after failing to break below 48 level, over stronger oil price and weaker dollar.

• USD/RUB has broken above four day high and now set to challenge weekly high around 54. Currently trading at 52.8.

Trade set up is attractive given weak fundamentals and stronger dollar. However sharp rise in oil prices could pose challenge.

• Speculative buy trades can be entered with recent low as stop loss. A break above 54, might push pair towards 60 level.

Central banks has now pushed interest rates at 14% last month from 17% in December last year. Next policy meeting is scheduled for April 30^th.

Central bank's Ruble dilemma -

• Weaker Ruble is undermining confidence and contributing to higher imported inflation, whereas stronger Ruble is contributing to lower revenue from oil exports that might lead to budget crunch.

Next central bank meeting becomes crucial to feel what might be the range of Ruble central bank is comfortable with for now.