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Kirill Tremasov, an advisor to the governor of Russia’s central bank, stated that the bank will have a clearer view of lending trends by its April meeting. For now, he noted, it is too early to draw conclusions.
Despite a slowdown in credit growth in early 2025, Tremasov highlighted that a "strong fiscal impulse" has helped counterbalance the decline. Consumer and corporate lending stalled during the winter months, yet money supply dynamics have remained largely unchanged.
The key reason, according to Tremasov, is the additional flow of funds into the economy through the budget deficit. While lending activity has temporarily paused, government spending continues to inject liquidity into the financial system, preventing a sharp contraction.
He cautioned that lending data will remain distorted until April due to seasonal variations and other influencing factors. The central bank will continue monitoring these trends before making decisions on interest rates.
The Russian economy remains under close scrutiny, with analysts watching how credit activity and fiscal policies shape monetary policy decisions.
