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Morgan Stanley has increased Tesla’s price target to $430, citing advancements in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology and embodied AI. The firm also introduced a bull case valuation of $800 per share, driven by Tesla’s leadership in data collection, robotics, energy storage, and AI infrastructure.
Tesla Mobility, the company’s autonomous rideshare division, plays a pivotal role in this valuation, contributing $90 per share in Morgan Stanley’s sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) model. Analysts project Tesla’s autonomous fleet to reach 7.5 million vehicles by 2040, with revenue of $1.46 per mile and a 29% EBITDA margin.
Network Services, including Full Self-Driving (FSD), supercharging, and software upgrades, is another growth driver. This segment, valued at $168 per share, is expected to contribute one-third of Tesla’s EBITDA by 2030, rising to nearly 60% by 2040.
The analysts, led by Adam Jonas, highlight Tesla’s broader potential in embodied AI, with applications in aviation and marine sectors yet to be reflected in current valuations. The bull case assumes a fleet size of 12 million vehicles by 2040, generating $1.50 per mile in revenue and achieving a 45% EBITDA margin.
While Tesla leads in autonomous mobility, challenges persist. Analysts predict the debut of an unsupervised autonomous fleet in city settings by 2026, but widespread adoption is not expected until after 2030. Regulatory and technological hurdles remain significant near-term obstacles.
Morgan Stanley’s bear case, valuing Tesla at $200 per share, reflects risks such as stricter regulations and slower adoption. Despite these uncertainties, Tesla’s dominance in AV technology and AI-driven services positions it as a leader in the autonomous future.
