Thai bond curve likely to ease by another 10–15bps on short covering flows from onshore NBFIs, says ANZ Research

In the near-term, the Thai bond curve is expected to ease by another 10–15 basis points on the back of short covering flows from onshore NBFIs that had missed the rally. However, flush liquidity condition should continue to support bonds.

Further, the Thai LBs are seen to take the cue from US Treasuries (UST). Softness in oil price has opened downside risks to UST yields. However, an extreme long positioning build-up in USTs, ANZ Research reported.

The Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) has successfully conducted THB90 billion worth of debt switches on June 23–26. This met the PDMO’s target switch amount and suggests that there might not be a second round switch auction in September.

The issuance of T-bills has been more robust since December 2016, in line with the flush interbank liquidity condition. This condition, a consequence of Thailand’s large current account surpluses, would give the PDMO flexibility in their fundraising strategy, should demand duration remains low.

"We maintain a neutral duration stance in Thailand, having raised it from 'Underweight' in early June in light of a more manageable supply outlook," the report commented.