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Thailand’s private consumption growth is likely to run in the 3-3.5 percent range in the medium-term, below the 4.5 percent pace that is reckoned to be the current potential.
Unwinding among households continues. Household loan growth has declined for four consecutive years since hitting a record-high 18.5 percent in 2012. By end-2016, household loan growth was a modest 3.4 percent. The growth of loans under special supervision has also fallen to a modest 3 percent annual pace, well below the 20 percent seen in 2013.
Further, the household debt-to-GDP ratio has peaked. It eased to 80 percent in 2016, from 81.2 percent in the previous year. Stronger nominal GDP growth will continue to pull this ratio lower. But it may still take at least 15 years to see the debt ratio falling back to pre-2007 level, assuming nominal GDP growth and loan growth were to average 6 and 2 percent respectively in the coming years.
"Given that private consumption makes up about half of the GDP, one should expect real GDP growth to also remain at about 3.5 percent per year in the medium-term," DBS Bank commented in its latest research report.
