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Thailand’s economy likely grew at its fastest pace in over two years in Q4 2023, driven by a surge in foreign tourists and robust exports, despite weak domestic demand. According to a Reuters poll of 15 economists, GDP expanded by 3.9% year-over-year, up from 3.0% in the previous quarter, with forecasts ranging between 3.1% and 4.6%.
Economists highlighted that Thailand’s export sector remained strong, particularly in services, benefiting from a booming tourism industry. However, domestic consumption showed signs of stalling, despite government stimulus efforts. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew a seasonally adjusted 0.7%, slowing from 1.2% in Q3.
Manufacturing faced challenges, with Moody’s economist Eugene Tan citing weakened demand in the auto sector as a key factor. Additionally, private consumption, a major driver of GDP, faltered, signaling broader economic weaknesses.
For 2024, the government projects 3.0% growth, up from 1.9% in 2023. However, Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput warned that weak consumer demand might cap growth at around 2.7%, aligning with Reuters’ poll median.
Economic uncertainties remain, with China’s slowdown, weak global demand, and rising U.S.-China trade tensions posing risks. Looking ahead, a separate Reuters poll predicts Thailand’s growth will average 2.9% in 2025, while Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat estimates a higher 3.5%.
