UK gilts remain tad higher as investors await 10-year auction, Q2 GDP

The United Kingdom’s gilt prices remained tad higher during European session Monday as investors wait to watch the country’s 10-year auction, scheduled to be held on August 8 by 09:40GMT. However, market participants are now defying the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of this year, which is expected to rise from its previous reading, due to be released on August 10 by 08:30GMT.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, slid nearly 1 basis point to 1.32 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also fell close to 1 basis point to 1.76 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year too traded nearly 1 basis point lower at 0.74 percent by 09:30GMT.

The end of the this week brings the latest GDP figures. Alongside the new monthly GDP data for June, which are expected to show a 0.2 percent m/m rise, the ONS will release the first estimate for Q2. Following a slowdown at the start of the year, GDP is set to have risen by 0.4 percent q/q in Q2. With a very sharp pick-up in consumer spending on the high street of 2.1 percent q/q that quarter, the expenditure breakdown will probably show that overall consumer spending growth rose from 0.2 percent q/q in Q1. Investment growth should recover after a 1.3 percent q/q slump in Q1, but net exports might remain a drag on growth.

Among other data releases, Thursday will bring the RICS Residential Market survey, which will probably signal that housing market sentiment remained subdued going into the second half of the year, while Tuesday brings the BRC Retail Sales Monitor. After a jump last quarter, which to some extent seems to have been driven in part by the warm weather and the World Cup, it will be interesting to see if the momentum was maintained at the start of Q3.

Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 fell 0.22 percent to 7,642.25 by 09:35GMT, while at 09:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Pound Strength Index remained highly bearish at -136.41 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex