U.S. Futures Steady as Rate-Cut Bets Rise on Soft Labor Data

U.S. stock futures were mostly flat on Wednesday night after Wall Street closed higher, as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened following fresh economic data. S&P 500 futures held steady at 6,861.0, Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.1% to 25,634.75, and Dow Jones futures inched up 0.1% to 47,996.0.

Investor sentiment improved after all three major indexes ended the regular session in positive territory. The Dow gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 0.2%. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s policy meeting, signaling broad confidence in a shift toward monetary easing.

This growing expectation was driven largely by an unexpected downturn in the labor market. ADP reported that U.S. private payrolls contracted by 32,000 in November, a stark contrast to the prior month’s revised gain and far below economist forecasts. The surprise decline intensified concerns over slowing employment trends, reinforcing speculation that the Fed may need to ease policy to support economic growth.

At the same time, the ISM services index for November climbed to 52.6, its strongest reading in nine months. Softer underlying price pressures provided additional reassurance that inflation may be cooling, giving the Fed more flexibility.

Adding to the dovish tone were reports suggesting the Trump administration canceled interviews with other potential Fed chair candidates, boosting expectations that Kevin Hassett—considered more dovish than Jerome Powell—could assume leadership in 2026.

In corporate news, Salesforce shares jumped 5% in extended trading after raising its FY26 revenue outlook, while Five Below gained 2.7% on strong comparable sales. Microsoft slipped 2.4% despite denying claims that it planned to cut AI-related sales targets.