Market Roundup
- ECB'S Liikanen: Accommodative monetary policy is essential to safeguard price stability, but could cause imbalances; monetary policy decisions and measures have had a clear positive impact on economic outlook.
- Econ Minister Varga says Hungary to continue supporting EU sanctions policy against Russia.
- China will relax rules for qualified foreign investors to enter interbank market.
- UK Net Mortgage Lending +0.508 bln stg in Feb vs +0.402 bln stg in Jan.
- UK Mortgage Approvals for home purchase 37,305 in Feb vs 36,517 in Jan, -20 pct yy.
- Italy Feb Flash Trade Balance Non-EU increases to 2.840 bln eur vs previous -0.23 bln eur.
- Germany Mar IFO expectations increase to 103.9 (consensus 103.0 ) vs previous 102.5.
- Germany Mar IFO Current Conditions increases to 112.0 (consensus 112.0 ) vs previous 111.3.
- Germany Mar IFO business climate increases to 107.9 (consensus 107.3 ) vs previous 106.8.
- France Mar Business Climate stays flat at 99 (consensus 99 ) vs previous 99.
- UBS Consumption Indicator for Switzerland 1.19 in Feb after 1.11 in previous month.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0700 EDT/1100 GMT) US MBA Mortgage Application Indices
- (0800 EDT/1200 GMT) US Revised Building Permits (Feb) previous 1.092 mln SAAR
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Durable Goods Orders (Feb) consensus +0.4% m/m, previous +2.8% m/m
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Durable Goods ex-Transportation (Feb) consensus +0.3% m/m, previous +0.0% m/m
- (0830 EDT/1230 GMT) US Non-Defense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (Feb) consensus +0.3% m/m, previous +0.5% m/m
- (1030 EDT/1430 GMT) US EIA Weekly Petroleum Statistics
Key Events Ahead
- (1145 EDT/1545 GMT) FedTrade 30-year Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (max $1.975 bln)
- (1430 EDT/1830 GMT) US Treasury Sec'y Lew testifies on FSOC accountability; Washington, DC
FX Recap
EUR/USD broke above the major resistance at 1.0942 levels on upbeat Eurozone data and is currently trading at 1.0957 levels. However, market is expected to trade sideways today. On the topside, next resistance is seen at 1.0973 levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.10 levels. On the downside, support is located at 1.0904 levels, and then at 1.0850 levels.
USD/JPY is trading around 119.63 with negative bias for Intraday. It is trading well below 200 day HMA , and tenken-sen. On the upside major intraday resistance is around 120 and any break above would extend gains till 120.37 (Cloud top)/ 120.88 in short term. The pair's major support 119.20 and below that level will drag the pair further down till 118.69/118.
USD/CAD has broken major support 1.2530 (200 day 4Hour EMA) and declined till 1.2426. Short term trend is still weak as long as support 1.2559 holds. On the upside minor resistance is around 1.2560 and short term trend reversal can happen only above that level. Break above 1.2560 could pave way for 1.2615/1.2665. The pair's minor support is around 1.2480 and any break below 1.2440/1.2400.
USD/CHF broke above the 0.96 handle temporarily and at present trades at 0.9577 levels. On the topside, resistance is seen at 0.9650 levels and a break above could push the pair to 0.9696 levels. On the flipside, support is seen at 0.9580 levels and further below at 0.9530 levels.
AUD/USD dropped to a fresh intra-day low of 0.7851 in early Europe, post the RBA's Financial Stabillity Review. Interest rate futures indicate there is a 60% possibility of a RBA rate cut by 25bp on Apr 7. Asian session high at 0.7891 today.
