US employment health – quit rates edition

US NFP report would be released today at 13:30 GMT for the month of February. The chart is prepared in FRED dashboard of St. Louis FED.

• Some of the components of the employment have reached the pre-crisis level like the NFP headline number or initial jobless claims but many of them are still lagging behind. One of such is "quit" rates.

What is quit rates?

• It is the percentage of people willfully leaves the current job probably for better opportunities.

Why is it important?

• Quits are a sign of employee confidence.
• Significant percentage shows that opportunities exist in ample which are a sign of healthier economy.
• Quit rates are also important indication of the potential wage growth and supply demand balance of the labor market.

Current Situation -

• Since 2009, quit rates are rising steadily but still far from reaching the pre-crisis level.
• Looking deep through the sectors reveal, they have reached the pre-crisis level in none of the sectors.

Impact -

• Good payroll numbers and still positive inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise rates this year but the path could remain slow if the underlying numbers like this quit rates, wage growth, participation rate continue to lag behind.
  
• Under such circumstance dollar might run out of fuel after first rate hike.