U.S. jobless rate likely to start heading lower again, participation rate to remain broadly stable in 2019: Barclays Research

The United States’ unemployment rate is expected to start heading lower again, while the participation is seen to remain broadly stable through 2019, with upward pressure from the ongoing expansion offsetting downward pressure from aging, according to the latest report from Barclays Research.

In February, the civilian participation rate held steady 63.2 percent, leaving participation at its highest level since September 2013. If so, the unemployment rate can be expected to begin drifting lower again and lead to continued gradual firming in wage pressures.

In February, the Barclays Indicator of Labor Market Conditions reversed its January decline as effects of the government shutdown came out of the data.

Further, the indicator on Labor Market Momentum weakened significantly, however, as hours worked slipped from prior levels. Some of this weakness is likely due to lingering effects of the shutdown or adverse weather, which should reverse in upcoming reports.

Hours worked, softer employment gains, and firming wages drove momentum sharply lower. Average weekly hours for production and nonsupervisory employees fell to 33.6, its weakest reading in a year.

"We see the weakness as related to the ebbing in stimulus and to the weather, which likely boosted construction hours in January and reduced them in February. These factors, plus a steady increase in average hourly earnings, drove momentum lower in February," the report further commented.