Trump Questions USMCA Renewal as Trade Talks Continue 
Oil Prices Slide as U.S.-Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening Ease Supply Concerns 
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Signals Policy Overhaul as Hawkish Rate Outlook Rattles Markets 
Japan Signals Readiness to Intervene as USD/JPY Nears 161 Amid Yen Weakness 
BOJ Signals More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Price Pressures 
Gold Prices Slide as Hawkish Fed and Strong Dollar Weigh on Bullion 
US Stock Futures Jump on Reports of Preliminary US-Iran Peace Deal Despite Fed’s Hawkish Outlook 
Japan Inflation Stays Below BOJ Target Despite Rate Hike and Rising Energy Cost Risks 
German Industry Employment Falls to Lowest Level in a Decade 
Yen Near 40-Year Lows Despite BOJ Rate Hike, Markets Brace for Possible Intervention 
Dollar Surges After Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Potential Tightening Ahead 
Asian Stocks Advance as Nikkei Nears Record High Ahead of Fed Decision 
Oil Prices Drop as U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Eases Supply Concerns 
Oil Prices Ease as Markets Weigh U.S.-Iran Peace Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening 
Canada Imposes 10% Tariff on Canned Vegetable Imports to Protect Domestic Industry 
Asian Currencies Steady as Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Fed Decision and US-Iran Deal Details 
Mexico (EWW) and Canada (EWC) received a temporary boost after the White House confirmed that goods shipped under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be largely exempt from the newly implemented 10% global tariff. The announcement follows a landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Donald Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose significantly higher tariffs on key trading partners.
Under the previous tariff structure, non-USMCA-compliant goods faced steep duties of 25% for Mexico and 35% for Canada. With the shift to a 10% global tariff and broad USMCA exemptions, economists at Desjardins and Grupo Financiero Base estimate that the effective tariff rate will decline slightly to around 3.7% for Canada and 4.4% for Mexico. This adjustment lowers immediate trade tensions and reduces the “tax wall” facing North American exporters.
The exemption is particularly important for the automotive and energy sectors, including ETFs such as CARZ and XLE. By preventing heavy tariffs on oil, auto parts, and critical manufacturing components, the decision helps stabilize cross-border supply chains and limits price volatility for businesses and consumers.
Despite the short-term relief, trade uncertainty remains elevated. While the Supreme Court ruling removed one of Trump’s preferred tools for imposing broad tariffs, the administration retains alternative mechanisms such as Section 301 investigations and Section 232 national security probes. Trade experts warn these targeted measures could be used to pursue country-specific actions, keeping markets on edge.
The 2026 USMCA review represents the most significant long-term risk for the Mexican peso (MXN) and Canadian dollar (CAD). Reports suggest Trump has questioned the agreement’s future, raising concerns about potential renegotiation or stricter enforcement. Although the current exemption eases pressure on North American trade, investors should expect a persistent “USMCA risk premium” as policy uncertainty continues to shape currency markets, equities, and cross-border investment flows.
