Vietnam Eyes U.S. Trade Deal Ahead of Looming 46% Tariff Reinstatement

Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with the United States before a key tariff deadline in early July. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Tianjin, China, Chinh said discussions with the Trump administration were progressing and hinted a deal could be finalized “earlier than two weeks.”

The U.S. had previously imposed a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese goods due to Vietnam’s growing trade surplus, but the rate is currently paused. With the temporary suspension set to expire soon, Vietnam is eager to secure a long-term resolution. Chinh emphasized the mutual understanding between the two nations, especially on tariff-related issues.

Vietnam, a rising Southeast Asian manufacturing hub, concluded another round of negotiations with the U.S. last week. According to Reuters, Washington has presented Hanoi with a list of firm demands, including reduced reliance on Chinese technology in Vietnamese exports to the U.S. market.

In May 2025, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. soared to $12.2 billion—up 42% year-over-year. Exports to the U.S. reached $13.8 billion, marking the highest monthly total since the COVID-19 pandemic. To ease tensions, Hanoi has increased efforts to combat illegal trans-shipment of Chinese goods and has pledged to expand imports of U.S. products such as aircraft, energy, and agricultural goods. However, no binding agreements have been signed.

The outcome of the ongoing talks will significantly impact Vietnam’s export-driven economy, as the U.S. remains its largest trade partner. A favorable agreement could not only avert hefty tariffs but also strengthen bilateral trade ties amid growing geopolitical and economic shifts in Asia.