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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

Dec 02, 2024 23:27 pm UTC| Insights & Views Law

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 1521 from a sample of 1,515, had a 5050 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens...

US under Trump Series

Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

Nov 06, 2024 07:10 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one. The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. Hes estimated to have...

Newspoll remains tied at 50–50, but Albanese’s net approval slumps

Sep 03, 2024 00:25 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted August 2630 from a sample of 1,263, had a 5050 two-party tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. This is the first time this term there have...

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

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Economy

Asian Currencies Hold Steady Amid Iran Peace Talks and BOJ Rate Hike Uncertainty

Asian currencies traded in a narrow range on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of further U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, while the Japanese yen slipped after the Bank of Japans governor signaled little urgency to...

South Korea's Capital Markets Rebound as Foreign Investors Return

South Koreas financial markets are staging a powerful comeback, drawing foreign investors back after a turbulent March that saw billions in capital flee. A combination of easing Middle East tensions, surging demand for AI...

U.S. and Philippines to Build 4,000-Acre Tech Hub Under Pax Silica Initiative

The United States and the Philippines are set to develop a massive 4,000-acre (1,620 hectares) industrial hub as part of a growing Washington-led effort to secure global AI and semiconductor supply chains. The announcement...

Singapore's Non-Oil Domestic Exports Surge 15.3% in March 2026 on AI Demand

Singapores non-oil domestic exports (NODX) posted a remarkable 15.3% year-on-year increase in March 2026, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth, according to Enterprise Singapore. The strong performance was...

Japan Eyes Private Credit as Key Pillar in New Financial Strategy

Japans financial regulator is positioning private credit as a cornerstone of its emerging national financial strategy, responding to surging corporate funding demand driven by record-breaking merger and acquisition...

Politics

House Republicans Near Deal on FISA Extension with Limited Reforms

Republican House leadership is reportedly moving closer to reaching an agreement on extending the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), with a package of modest reforms attached. According to Politico, four...

Ukraine's Svyrydenko Returns from U.S. With Renewed Support and Diplomatic Momentum

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko wrapped up a productive two-day visit to Washington, D.C., expressing confidence in U.S. support following high-level talks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other senior...

South Korea Denies U.S. Intelligence Restrictions Over North Korea Nuclear Site Disclosure

South Koreas Unification Ministry pushed back Friday against reports that Washington had expressed displeasure and threatened to limit intelligence sharing after a South Korean minister publicly identified a previously...

China Navigates Diplomatic Tightrope Between Iran Peace Efforts and Trump Summit

China is intensifying its push to end the Iran war while carefully balancing its relationship with Tehran ahead of a pivotal summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled for mid-May. As the...

Myanmar Grants Amnesty to Over 4,000 Prisoners Under New President Min Aung Hlaing

Myanmars newly elected President Min Aung Hlaing has approved the release of 4,335 prisoners, according to state broadcaster MRTV, marking the third amnesty issued in the country within six months. The announcement did not...

Science

China vs. NASA: The New Moon Race and What's at Stake by 2030

The space race is back and this time, its a direct competition between the United States and China for dominance on the lunar surface. NASAs Artemis II mission recently made history when four astronauts flew farther into...

NASA Artemis II: First Crewed Moon Mission Since Apollo Takes Four Astronauts on 10-Day Lunar Journey

NASAs Artemis II mission launched Wednesday, marking humanitys return to crewed lunar exploration for the first time since the Apollo era. Carrying four astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft, this historic 10-day mission...

NASA's Artemis II Mission: First Crewed Lunar Journey Since Apollo

NASA's Artemis II Crew Arrives in Florida for Historic Moon Mission

The four astronauts chosen for NASAs Artemis II mission have touched down at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, marking the beginning of final launch preparations for the first crewed lunar journey in over 50 years. NASA...

SpaceX Pivots Toward Moon City as Musk Reframes Long-Term Space Vision

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has revealed a significant shift in the companys near-term space exploration strategy, announcing that SpaceX is now prioritizing the development of a self-growing city on the Moon rather than focusing...

Technology

OpenAI's $20 Billion Cerebras Deal Signals Massive AI Infrastructure Push

OpenAI is reportedly set to spend over $20 billion with AI chip startup Cerebras over the next three years, marking a significant expansion of an already substantial computing partnership. According to The Information, the...

Tesla's Terafab: AI Chip Factory Eyes Taiwan's Semiconductor Talent

Tesla is actively recruiting semiconductor engineers in Taiwan for its ambitious Terafab project a fully vertically integrated AI chip manufacturing facility that aims to consolidate logic, memory, packaging, testing, and...

Japan to Subsidize Sony's Image Sensor Plant in Kumamoto with $380 Million

The Japanese government has announced plans to provide Sony with subsidies of up to 60 billion yen, equivalent to approximately $380 million, to support the construction of an image sensor manufacturing facility in...

NiSource Signs Long-Term Energy Deals with Alphabet and Amazon to Power Indiana Data Centers

NiSource, a U.S. utility company, has secured a long-term energy supply agreement with an Alphabet subsidiary to power a major data center in northern Indiana. The announcement also included an expanded partnership with...

TSMC Posts Record Q1 Profit Fueled by AI Chip Demand

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM), the worlds largest contract chipmaker, delivered a record-breaking first-quarter profit in 2026, surpassing analyst expectations as artificial intelligence continues...