Currency War Series

Scandi currencies experiencing divergence after CBs stand pat in monetary policy

Dec 22, 2015 11:44 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

Both the Riksbank and Norges Bank left policy unchanged last week, in line with the forecasts. We would be looking for a meaningful move lower to engage in long positions ahead of weak Q1 data and an eventual Norges Bank...

Oil in Global Economy Series

Lower oil prices may add pressure on ECB to “recalibrate” monetary policy in 2016

Dec 22, 2015 11:42 am UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

The ECB has unleashed an unprecedented series of policy measures to try and push eurozone inflation back up to levels conducive to healthy economic growth. But even the most optimistic forecasts suggest that it could well...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

Monetary policy season in EM Asia after Fed

Dec 22, 2015 08:10 am UTC| Insights & Views

IDR: Bank Indonesia (BI) stood pat to heep rates on hold at 7.5% to anchor IDR stability. it could foresee a space for easing given that pressures on macroeconomic stability have moderated as per previous MPC statements....

From Zorro to Zombie: the rise and fall of the microcredit movement

Dec 22, 2015 06:14 am UTC| Insights & Views Economy

Thirty years ago, the international development community was in a state of high excitement. The perfect market-affirming solution to poverty in developing countries had apparently been found. Microcredit, also known as...

Oil in Global Economy Series

How plummeting prices are spurring reform in oil producing countries

Dec 22, 2015 01:01 am UTC| Insights & Views

It has been a turbulent year for oil. Prices were strong in summer 2014, before plummeting in the second half of that year. After a modest stabilisation in early 2015, they dropped even further and are now more than two...

Brent crude outlook seems deferred buying

Dec 21, 2015 13:32 pm UTC| Insights & Views

The bear market in oil prices has intensified since we went long deferred Brent. We anticipate crude oil markets to begin the process of rebalancing during 2016 and that current depressed pricing of Brent crudes - while...

Fed Hike Aftermath Series

Fed’s focus on inflation after monetary policy, sustenance in USD in short run but EM baskets to gain

Dec 21, 2015 12:09 pm UTC| Insights & Views Central Banks

In long term, we expect dollar continues to be supported versus euro, while it could underperform relative to emerging market currencies especially. With the uncertainty regarding the first hike of the Fed behind us,...