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Adrian Beaumont

I have completed my PhD at the University of Melbourne’s School of Mathematics and Statistics, and graduated 6 August 2016. I am now an Honorary Associate at the School. Since 1998, I have had great interest in electoral politics, and I keenly follow both Australian and US elections. I have been writing poll and electoral analysis articles for The Conversation since prior to the 2013 Federal election on Federal, state and some international elections. In June 2022 I joined The Conversation staff as an election analyst.

With nominations decided, Trump leads Biden in US polls

Mar 19, 2024 11:28 am UTC| Insights & Views Politics

Joe Biden and Donald Trump have both secured their parties nominations for the November 5 United States general election by winning a majority of all delegates to their parties conventions, including delegates not yet...

Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

Nov 07, 2023 09:08 am UTC| Politics

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 5248% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice...

Special votes mean National and ACT will likely lose their majority

Oct 31, 2023 09:01 am UTC| Politics

This Friday at 2pm (12pm AEDT), New Zealanders will find out the final results of the October 14 election. This tally will include the estimated 567,000 special votes not reported in the preliminary results on election...

NZ Election 2023: final polls suggest NZ First likely kingmaker as the left makes late gains

Oct 12, 2023 07:31 am UTC| Politics

After political polls between March and August showed a clear trend towards the right, polls since late August have shown the reverse. Remove a resurgent NZ First from the mix, and the left and right blocs are now polling...

The US could default on June 1 owing to gridlock over the debt limit; Biden vs Trump polls are close

May 23, 2023 15:21 pm UTC| Economy Politics

The United States debt limit is a legislative limit on the overall debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running budget deficits, the debt keeps increasing. Congress could deal with this permanently by either...

Republicans gain in US midterm polls with three weeks until election

Oct 21, 2022 06:17 am UTC| Politics

The United States midterm elections will be held in nearly three weeks, on November 8. All 435 House of Representatives seats are up for election, as well as 35 of the 100 senators. Democrats won the House by 222-213 in...

Morrison slumps in Newspoll but Coalition gains, as lockdown shows vaccination is essential

Jun 08, 2021 00:16 am UTC| Politics

This weeks Newspoll had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50-50 on a two-party-preferred basis. This is a one point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (steady),...

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Economy

The yen plunges to 34-year low despite interest rate hike

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years on March 19, bringing an era of negative interest rates to an end. The key rate was hiked from 0.1% to a band from zero to 0.1% a token effort...

The idea that US interest rates will stay higher for longer is probably wrong

The 0.4% rise in US consumer prices in March didnt look like headline news. It was the same as the February increase, and the year-on-year rise of 3.5% is still sharply down from 5% a year ago. All the same, this modest...

Impact of Iran-Israel conflict on Stocks, Gold and Bitcoin

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. The information provided is for general purposes only. No information, materials, services and other content provided on this page constitute a solicitation, recommendation,...

Japan Posts 7.7% Growth in Machinery Orders

In a striking development that looks set to invigorate Japans economic prospects, a key gauge of capital spending in the country has seen its most significant jump in over a year. According to Cabinet Office data released...

Why Africa can be the beating heart of South Korea’s technology industry

Tshepo Ncube, Head: International Coverage and Bhavtik Vallabhjee, Head: Power, Utilities Infrastructure at Absa CIB reflect on their recent visit to South Korea, examining why investors in the region have their eyes set...

Politics

US Commerce Secretary Asserts Huawei Chip Lag, Affirms Export Control Success

In an interview on CBS News 60 Minutes, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo stated that the latest Huawei Mate 60 Pro phones chip remains significantly behind U.S. technology despite being the most advanced from China. She...

The Alberta government is interfering in public sector bargaining on an unprecedented scale

In the coming months, over 200,000 public sector workers in Alberta will begin bargaining with their employers for new contracts. The most recent agreements expired in March and, after many years of high inflation and few...

Putin’s Russia: first arrests under new anti-LGBT laws mark new era of repression

Just over three decades after Russia decriminalised homosexuality in 1993, three people have been arrested and charged under the countrys harsh new anti-LGBT laws and could face ten years in prison for membership of an...

Nvidia RTX 4090D Embroiled in US-China Tech Rivalry; South Korea Navigates Chip Export Dilemma

The U.S. government has tightened export restrictions on high-performance semiconductor chips to China, including the Nvidia RTX 4090D, and is urging South Korea to enforce similar curbs, marking a significant escalation...

Canada needs a national strategy for homeless refugee claimants

One year after the federal government closed Roxham Road, refugee claims in Canada continue to increase: there were 143,785 in 2023 compared to 91,730 in 2022. The surprise announcement in March 2023 to modify Canadas...

Science

Peter Higgs was one of the greats of particle physics. He transformed what we know about the building blocks of the universe

Peter Higgs, who gave his name to the subatomic particle known as the Higgs boson, has died aged 94. He was always a modest man, especially when considering that he was one of the greats of particle physics the area of...

Could a telescope ever see the beginning of time? An astronomer explains

The James Webb Space Telescope, or JWST for short, is one of the most advanced telescopes ever built. Planning for JWST began over 25 years ago, and construction efforts spanned over a decade. It was launched into space on...

US media coverage of new science less likely to mention researchers with African and East Asian names

When one Chinese national recently petitioned the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to become a permanent resident, he thought his chances were pretty good. As an accomplished biologist, he figured that news...

If life exists on Jupiter’s moon Europa, scientists might soon be able to detect it

Europa is one of the largest of more than 90 moons in orbit around the planet Jupiter. It is also one of the best places to look for alien life. Often termed an ocean world by scientists, observations to date strongly...

Exploding stars are rare but emit torrents of radiation − if one happened close enough to Earth, it could threaten life on the planet

Stars like the Sun are remarkably constant. They vary in brightness by only 0.1% over years and decades, thanks to the fusion of hydrogen into helium that powers them. This process will keep the Sun shining steadily for...

Technology

Critical Update: Samsung Expands Network Band Support in Europe – Update Now for Uninterrupted Access

This week, Samsung has launched a vital software update across European markets, targeting various devices, including the Galaxy S24 and Z Flip 5. This update is critical for maintaining network connectivity and accessing...

Shiba Inu's Burn Rate Surges 2200%, Fuels Bullish Sentiment and Speculation on Future Price Gains

Shiba Inu (SHIB), a well-known meme coin rumored to be the self-proclaimed Dogecoin killer, sparked unbridled jubilation among crypto market traders and investors today, as its burn rate increased by around 2200%. This...

Robinhood Unveils SHIB, AVAX, and COMP Listings for New York Traders, Expanding Crypto Access

Robinhood has expanded its cryptocurrency offerings to New York residents, now including popular tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Avalanche (AVAX), and Compound (COMP), enhancing trading options on its platform. Robinhood...

Hong Kong's First Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Set to Begin Trading April 30, Official Approval Granted

Hong Kongs Securities and Futures Commission has officially approved the first spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, which will begin trading on April 30. This marks a significant milestone in the citys cryptocurrency market...

Tesla Nears FSD Licensing Deal with Major Automaker, Hits 1.3 Billion Milestone

In Teslas latest quarterly update, CEO Elon Musk disclosed ongoing Full Self-Driving (FSD) licensing negotiations with a major automaker, noting the significant engagement from FSD users who have now surpassed 1.3 billion...