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The U.S. housing market in 2025 offers cautious optimism, with Bank of America predicting better supply and steady mortgage rates. However, affordability and inventory shortages are expected to limit the pace of recovery, keeping many buyers and sellers on the sidelines.
2025 Housing Market: Challenges and Mild Improvements Ahead
While a survey by Bank of America predicts a slight uptick in activity in the US home market in 2025, it also notes that high mortgage rates and affordability issues would keep things slow.
After dropping from their all-time high of 8% last year to 6% earlier this year, mortgage rates have since recovered and are back at 7%. In 2025, rates are expected to stay in the 6-6.5% range, according to BofA analysts. This will keep the "lock-in effect" going strong, since homeowners with low rates are hesitant to sell, Investing.com shares
Cost is still a major issue. Median home prices are about four times the median income, which has led to a persistent lack of affordability, even if there has been some progress since 2022. In the United States, a single-family home could be purchased for as little as $412,000 in October, while the median income was $102,000.
Improved Housing Supply Faces New Constraints
As a result of fewer delays and more completed projects, the report states that supply has improved. Nevertheless, builders are faced with constraints caused by high mortgage rates and expenses, and the inventory of existing homes is at an all-time low.
The market may find support from persistent demand for housing and from slow but steady income growth. In 2025, if mortgage rates remain stable, according to BofA, existing home sales will reach about 4.2 million. Although renting is still less expensive in 82 out of 97 large U.S. cities, the ratio of mortgage payments to rent has decreased, indicating better conditions in some areas.
Affordability Likely to Improve Gradually
As long as salaries continue to outperform inflation and interest rates stabilise, affordability should gradually return to levels experienced in the early 2000s. However, high mortgage rates will continue to be a barrier for both buyers and sellers, thus BofA warns that the recovery will be slow.
