AI Deals Propel Nasdaq and S&P 500 to Record Highs Amid U.S. Government Shutdown

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Monday as enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) stocks offset concerns over the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The rally was led by chipmakers after AMD announced a major deal with OpenAI to supply AI chips, a move projected to generate tens of billions in annual revenue and potentially grant OpenAI up to a 10% stake in AMD. Shares of AMD soared 23.7%, lifting the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 2.9%.

Market optimism persisted despite the shutdown entering its sixth day, delaying key economic data releases. Investors instead turned to secondary indicators such as consumer credit and mortgage demand to gauge the economy’s health. According to Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth, “The market remains captivated by the AI trend, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary sectors.” He cautioned, however, that “waves don’t go on forever; it’s hard to know when this one will crest.”

Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious tone on rate cuts, even as markets priced in a 94.6% probability of a 25 basis point reduction at the October meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.14% to 46,694.97, while the S&P 500 gained 0.36% to 6,740.28, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.71% to 22,941.67. Consumer discretionary stocks led S&P gains, while real estate lagged.

Corporate movers added to market excitement. Tesla jumped 5.5% after teasing an upcoming event on X, while Comerica surged 13.7% after being acquired by Fifth Third in an $10.9 billion all-stock deal. In contrast, Starbucks fell 5% following a price target cut, and Verizon dropped 5.1% after naming former PayPal CEO Dan Schulman as its new leader. Bitcoin also broke the $125,000 mark, boosting crypto-linked firms like Coinbase and Riot Platforms.

With earnings season approaching, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post 8.8% year-on-year profit growth for Q3, further fueling optimism across Wall Street.