API reports deficit, while WTI awaits EIA report – calls updated

WTI is more than 95%, since February, gaining over $50/barrel area.

Key factors at play in Crude market –

• OPEC members met in Vienna and maintained status quo in terms of production. However Saudi Arabia’s new oil minister’s call for rebuilding OPEC and its cooperation gained lots of attraction.
• Canada’s production is under recovery after wildfire shut down 1.8 million barrels/day.
• Nigeria and Venezuela still facing troubles with production and outages. Militants are attacking Nigerian pipelines.
• U.S. oil production has dropped to 8.73 million barrels/day and likely to drop further.
• Major supply increase is taking place from the Middle East. Iran boosted exports by 600,000 barrels/day. Saudi Arabia is expected to increase production to 11 million barrels/day.
• India has emerged as the biggest incremental crude buyer this year.
• American Petroleum Institute’s (API) weekly report showed inventory declined by 3.56 million barrels.

Today’s inventory report from US Energy Information Administration (EIA), to be released at 14:30 GMT.

Chart courtesy investing.com

Trade idea –

• We expect current rally to continue further, however, oil price is likely to remain low over a much longer horizon. Recent offshore pile up around Singapore, known as Singapore glut points to this direction.
• Oil remains vulnerable to wind up in positions by speculative account.
• Price rise to $60/barrel, very much conceivable.