Market Roundup
• US Chicago Fed National Activity (Sep) -0.12 previous
• Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.7%, 1.3%forecast, -1.2% previous
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.0% ,1.0% forecast,-0.8% previous
• Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) -0.7% ,-0.7% previous
• US Existing Home Sales (Sep) 4.06M ,4.06M forecast,4.00M previous
• US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) 1.5%, -0.2% previous
• US Fed Composite Index (Oct) 6, 4 previous
• US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) 15, 4 previous
• US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.945%, 4.030% previous
• US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.900%, 3.960% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 22:00 Australia Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct )52.40 previous
• 22:00 Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 51.4 previous
• 23:30 Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% previous
• 23:30 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.9%forecast,2.7% previous
• 23:30 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.7% previous
• 23:30 Japan National CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% previous
• 00:30 Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct) 51.30 previous
• 00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 48.6 forecast,48.5 previous
• 00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Oct) 53.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 00:05 Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investors positioned for key U.S. inflation data due on Friday. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the week’s most closely watched market event, carrying potential implications for the Federal Reserve. Economists forecast that headline inflation rose 0.4% in September, slightly above expectations.Despite the possibility of persistent inflation, investors are expected to focus on the broader trend rather than short-term spikes. Fed funds futures currently imply a 96.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s October 29 meeting, slightly down from a 98.3% probability seen on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1662(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1728(Oct 17th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1561(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1523(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Thursday as latest UK inflation data and dovish comment from Bank of England policymaker weighed on the pound.Bank of England policymaker Swati Dhingra stated on Thursday that higher U.S. import tariffs are weighing on UK growth and are likely to put downward pressure on British inflation in the medium term.Annual consumer price inflation held steady at 3.8% year-on-year, unchanged from July and August, below the market forecast of 4.0%.UK inflation data suggested that inflation is easing toward the Bank of England's 2% target, leading to a downward shift in UK rate expectations across the curve.Market pricing now indicates a 75% probability of a Bank of England rate cut by December 18, up sharply from the 45% chance seen before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3386(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3399(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3294(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as loonie was supported by Canadian retail sales data and higher oil price. Canadian retail sales grew by 1% in August, matching expectations, after falling 0.7% in July, as consumers spent more on new cars, at supermarkets and for clothing. An advance estimate for September was less upbeat, showing a decline of 0.7%.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, surged 5.8% to $61.87 a barrel after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian suppliers. expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further in a policy decision next Wednesday. Last month, the central bank lowered its benchmark rate to a three-year low of 2.50%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4063(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4101 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3982(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3930(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as the market awaited details of a big stimulus package from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing an economic stimulus package that is likely to exceed last year's $92 billion to help households tackle inflation, government sources familiar with the plan said on Wednesday.The package of more than 13.9 trillion yen ($92.19 billion) is Takaichi's first major economic initiative since the advocate of big fiscal spending took office on Tuesday, reflecting a commitment to what she calls "responsible proactive fiscal policy.Investors are closely watching Takaichi's spending plans as Japan is one of the world's most indebted economies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.27(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.58 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
The STOXX 600 index closed at a record high on Thursday, driven by gains in energy stocks following new U.S. sanctions on Russia, while investors assessed the health of European corporations amid a series of earnings reports.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.28 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.23 percent.
Wall Street rose on Thursday, recovering losses from Wednesday’s selloff as investors weighed a mixed set of corporate earnings alongside growing geopolitical concerns.
At GMT 20:20 Dow Jones was last by 0.31% percent, S&P 500 was last up by 0.58 % percent, Nasdaq was last up by 0.89% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed over 1% on Thursday, rebounding from two consecutive sessions of losses, as rising geopolitical risks boosted safe-haven demand and investors prepared for key U.S. inflation data on Friday.
Spot gold was up 1% at $4,132.76 per ounce, as of 01:49 p.m. ET (1748 GMT), after falling to a near two-week low in the previous session.
Oil prices jumped over 5% on Thursday following U.S. sanctions on major Russian firms amid the Ukraine war, while major stock indexes rose as gains in U.S. and European energy shares offset weaker earnings news.
