Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.641%, 2.342% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.817%, 2.866% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.641%, 2.661% previous
•US CB Employment Trends Index (Nov): 109.55, 108.25 previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, 0.2%, -0.2% previous
•US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Oct): -0.1%, 0.5% previous
•US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Nov): 3.0%, 2.9% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.300%, 4.400% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.200%, 4.305% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q3): -0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
•23:50 Japan M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Nov): 1.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•23:50 Japan M3 Money Supply (Nov): 2,184.5B previous
• 03:00 China Exports (Nov): 11.20M previous
• 03:00 China Imports (Nov): -3.70M previous
• 03:00 China Trade Balance (USD) (Nov): 94.00B forecast, 95.27B previous
•03:00 China Imports (YoY) (Nov): 0.3%, -2.3% previous
•03:00 China Trade Balance (Nov): 682.00B, 679.10B previous
•03:00 China Exports (YoY) (Nov): 8.5%, 12.7% previous
•03:30 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec): 4.35% forecast, 4.35% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro eased against the dollar on Monday as investors were on edge ahead of the European Central Bank's meeting later in the week. European Central Bank is widely expected to lower rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. On the data front, Investor morale in the euro zone dropped to its lowest level in over a year in December, according to a survey released on Monday. Germany continued to weigh on the region's performance, with snap elections in February failing to boost confidence. The Sentix index for the euro zone fell to -17.5 in December, down from -12.8 in November, marking the lowest reading since November 2023 and a sharper decline than the -13.5 forecast by analysts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0594(Dec 9th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0653(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0528(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0451(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially gained but gave up ground on Monday as investors awaited US inflation report this week, which might impact the Federal Reserve's forthcoming interest rate choice. Core U.S. inflation data is set to be released on Wednesday, and a figure exceeding the +0.3% prediction would undermine market confidence in a Fed rate cut in December. The implied likelihood stands at 83%, with an additional 75 basis points of easing factored in for the upcoming year. The UK possesses a comprehensive data timetable featuring GDP, construction, trade, industrial output, manufacturing, and consumer inflation expectations, offering a wide overview of the economy. The pound rose 0.29% against the dollar to $1.2777, following a decline of 0.15% on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2812(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2292 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2660(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2543(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as investors looked ahead to interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada this week. The Bank of Canada is expected to continue its easing campaign at a policy decision on Wednesday, with the majority of economists polled by Reuters forecasting a half-percentage-point rate cut. According to a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters, the BoC will slash interest rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday for the second consecutive meeting. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose 2% to $68.54 a barrel. Copper futures were up 2.2% and gold added 1.3%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4187(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4200 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4113 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4043(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthens against the yen on Monday as investors looked for greater clarity regarding the likelihood of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Economically, Japan's growth in the July-September period outpaced initial forecasts, supported by improved estimates for capital investment and exports. This has maintained market hopes for a possible interest rate increase by the central bank. Updated information from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's GDP expanded by an annualized 1.2% in the third quarter, exceeding economists' predictions and the initial estimate of 0.9%. The Bank of Japan will scrutinize this data in its upcoming policy meeting on December 18-19, with some analysts anticipating a potential rise in short-term interest rates from the present 0.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.67 (Nov 29th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.29(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.82(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 150.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares closed at six-week highs on Monday, driven by gains in mining and luxury stocks, following China's pledge of renewed stimulus to support its slowing economy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.52 percent, Germany's Dax closed up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.72 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Monday, pressured by a decline in AI leader Nvidia, which dragged down tech stocks.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.54%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.61% percent, Nasdaq closed down by 0.60% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged to two-week highs on Monday, rising more than 1% as China's central bank resumed buying the metal after a six-month pause. The rally was further fueled by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week.
Spot gold gained 1.1% to $2,662.98 per ounce, as of 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1% higher at $2,685.50.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, driven by increased geopolitical risk following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and signals from China, the world's top importer, indicating its first shift towards a looser monetary policy since 2010.
Brent crude futures settled $1.02, or 1.4%, higher at $72.14 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.17, or 1.7%, to $68.37.
