Market Roundup
•US Export Price Index (YoY) (Oct): -0.1%, -1.7% forecast, -1.9% previous
•US Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.8%, -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
•US Import Price Index (YoY) (Oct): 0.8%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•US Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct): 0.3%, -0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov): 31.20, -0.30 forecast, -11.90 previous
•US Retail Control (MoM) (Oct): -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 1.2% previous
•US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.8% previous
•US Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct): 2.85%, no forecast, 1.98% previous
•US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Oct): 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 1.2% previous
•US Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Sep): -0.5%, -0.7% forecast, -1.3% previous
•Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Sep): 168.5K, no forecast, 166.0K previous
•Canada New Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.8%, 1.0% forecast, -0.9% previous
•US Capacity Utilization Rate (Oct): 77.1%, 77.1% forecast, 77.4% previous
•US Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct): -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, -0.5% previous
•US Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): -0.29%, no forecast, -0.73% previous
•US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct): -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•US Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep): 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 478, no forecast, 479 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 584, no forecast, 585 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro neared a one-year low against the dollar on Friday as dollar surged on growth prospects and on concerns on Trump's policies. The global markets are still concentrating on the effects of Trump's victory, with the general belief that his policies could lead to increased U.S. inflation when he officially becomes president in January, resulting in fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned on Thursday that there was no urgency to decrease interest rates, as the economy continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and inflation is still higher than the 2% goal. According to the latest report from the U.S. Commerce Department, retail sales increased by 0.4% last month following a revision that showed a 0.8% gain in September. The euro was headed for the second straight week of losses after slumping to its lowest level since October 2023. It was last up at $1.0540. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling declined on Friday after data showed data showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly in September. Data showed that Britain's economy shrank unexpectedly in September, with growth slowing significantly over the third quarter, posing a challenge to finance minister Rachel Reeves' plans for a sustained increase. GDP fell by 0.1% in September, contrary to economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise. At the same time, positive retail sales data in the U.S. caused traders to reduce their expectations of a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, the possibility of increased inflation under the new Trump administration has dampened hopes of Fed easing in 2025. Sterling was on track for its steepest weekly fall since January 2023, at roughly 2.4%. It was last down 0.38% at $1.2620. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2753(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2818(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2671 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2635(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a 4-1/2 year low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as falling oil prices and a larger difference in yields between U.S. and Canadian yields made it less appealing for investors to keep the Canadian currency. The difference between the Canadian 2-year yield and its U.S. equivalent increased by 5.5 basis points to around 115 basis points in favor of the U.S. note, close to its widest since 1997. Investors typically show a preference for currencies that offer higher yields. Oil a significant Canadian export, dropped by 1.4% to $67.73 per barrel and was headed towards a weekly decline as investors considered decreasing Chinese consumption. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.4075 to the U.S. dollar, after touching its weakest intraday level since May 2020 at 1.4105.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4106 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.451 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4052 (38.2%fib A), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3980 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Friday as markets reassessed expectations of future interest rate cuts and with the view that President-elect Donald Trump's policies could be inflationary. The dollar has benefited from market expectation that Trump administration policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, could stoke inflation, leaving the Federal Reserve less room to cut interest rates. The dollar has gained on market anticipation that Trump administration actions, such as tariffs and tax cuts, might increase inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to reduce interest rates. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, stated on Thursday that there is no urgency for the central bank to quickly reduce interest rates, leading traders to scale back their expectations for a substantial rate cut in the coming months. The greenback was set to notch a weekly gain against the Japanese yen after it traded above 156 yen this week for the first time since July. It was last down 1.4% to 154.145 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.91 (38.2 %fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.83(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 15401(SMA9) a break below could take the pair towards 153.05(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Friday, weighed down by disappointing earnings, concerns about the impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies on global economies and a jump in Treasury yields.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.09percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.58percent.
The primary indexes of Wall Street ended the week with declines, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their largest single-day drops in a fortnight due to worries over expectation on interest-rate cut and reactions to President-elect Donald Trump's cabinet selections.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.70% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.32 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.25% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices on Friday were on track for their biggest weekly decline in over three years as expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted the dollar.
Spot gold lost 0.1% to $2,565.49 per ounce as of 01:44 p.m. ET (1842 GMT). Prices have fallen more than 4% so far this week, touching their lowest since Sept. 12 on Thursday. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,570.10.
Oil prices settled down more than 2% on Friday as investors fretted about weaker Chinese demand and a potential slowing in the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
Brent crude futures settled down $1.52, or 2.09%, to $71.04 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled down $1.68, or 2.45%, at $67.02.
