Market Roundup
•French 12-month BTF auction 2.746%, 2.714% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.167%, 3.250% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.016%, 3.028% previous
•US CB Employment Trends Index (Sep) 108.48, 109.54 previous
•US Consumer Credit (Aug) 8.93B,11.80B forecast,26.63B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•05:00 Japan 30-Year JGB Auction 2.043% previous
•05:00 Economy Watchers Current Index (Sep) 49.3 forecast,49.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro recovered some ground against the dollar on Monday as investors turned their attention towards U.S. inflation data later this week and comments by Federal Reserve officials. A slew of Fed officials are due to speak at events this week, which could give further clues on the central bank's future interest rate trajectory. Focus will also be on U.S. September inflation figures on Thursday.Minutes from the Fed's September meeting on Wednesday are expected to explain the bank's big rate cut last month. Any chance of another outsized 50-basis-point rate cut next month has since been erased and traders are even pricing in a 14.6% chance that the Fed could keep rates on hold. Just 50 bps worth of cuts are priced in by December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0933(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1044(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0955(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0916 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors focus turned to geopolitical risks and central banks' monetary policy path.The pound recorded its biggest daily fall last week since April after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was quoted as saying the central bank might move more aggressively to lower borrowing costs.Analysts said Bailey's remarks triggered a substantial unwinding of stretched pound net longs, and that speculative positioning makes the British currency more vulnerable to shifts in sentiment. The data calendar is not particularly busy in the UK this week, but market-moving releases, including jobs data and the consumer price index report, are due next week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3170(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3257(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3020(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3004(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors reassessed their positions after last week's strong U.S. jobs data and as fears that Middle East tensions would spill into a wider conflict drove bids for safe havens.The closely-watched jobs report for September showed the biggest jump in nonfarm payrolls in six months, a drop in the unemployment rate and solid wage rises, prompting markets to scale back bets on further hefty U.S. rate cuts. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by just 25 bps in November, rather than 50 bps, following the jobs data. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.45% versus the greenback . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3711 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3758 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3577 (50% fib)..
USD/JPY: The dollar eased slightly against the yen on Monday as investors digested last Friday’s U.S. jobs report that reinforced bets that the world's largest economy is headed for a soft landing. The U.S. jobs report on Friday pointed to a resilient economy and spurred markets to reduce bets of outsized Federal Reserve rate cuts. The market now awaits minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting and data for the U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index this week. Traders now see a 95% probability that the Fed will cut rates by only a quarter of a percentage point next month, after a U.S. employment report pointed to a resilient economy that likely does not need the central bank to deliver large interest rate cuts for the rest of this year. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.76 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.26 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.20(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 145.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks eked out marginal gains on Monday, with Orsted topping the STOXX index as Norway's Equinor bought a stake in the offshore wind developer, although gains were limited by rate-sensitive stocks like real estate and utilities.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.46 percent.
Wall Street's three major indexes closed down around 1% on Monday while Treasury yields rose, as traders tamped down bets for Federal Reserve interest-rate easing and worried about the Middle East conflict's impact on oil prices.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.94 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 0.96 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.18 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Monday as the U.S. dollar held strong and recent employment data prompted investors to scale back expectations of a big rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,648.21 per ounce by 1:51 p.m. ET (1751 GMT), off a record peak of $2,685.42 hit on Sept. 26.U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $2,666.00.
Oil prices settled more than 3% higher on Monday, with Brent surpassing $80 per barrel for the first time since August as the increased risk of a region-wide Middle East war jolted investors out of record bearish positions amassed last month.
Brent crude futures rose by $2.88, or 3.7%, to settle at $80.93 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced by $2.76, or 3.7%, to $77.14 per barrel.
