Market Roundup
•Canada Feb IPPI (YoY) -1.7%,-2.9% previous
•Canada Feb RMPI (MoM) 2.1%,0.8% forecast ,1.2% previous
•Canada Feb RMPI (YoY) -4.7%,-6.4% previous
•Canada Feb IPPI (MoM) 0.7%,0.0% forecast ,-0.1% previous
•US Mar NAHB Housing Market Index 51, 48 forecast ,48 previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.526%,3.450% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.796%,3.813% previous
•French French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.775%,3.747% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.245%, 5.250% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.130%,5.100% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.00% forecast ,-0.10% previous
•03:30 Australia Mar RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.35% forecast , 4.35% previous
•04:30 Japan Jan Capacity Utilization (MoM) -0.1% forecast ,-0.1% previous
•04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) -7.5% forecast ,1.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
•03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
•06:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Monday after data showed Eurozone inflation eased in February. Final data from Eurostat, revealed on Monday, confirmed that Eurozone inflation softened in February as expected, softening was primarily reflected to decrease in energy prices. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded an annual increase of 2.6 percent, following a rise of 2.8 percent in January. This rate corresponds with the flash estimate published on March 1. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, decelerated to 3.1 percent, consistent with estimates, down from 3.3 percent the previous month. In February, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis, aligning with the initial estimate. The euro was up 0.2% to $1.0899. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0995(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0803(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was little changed against the dollar Monday as investors waited for the Bank of England decision later in the week. The Bank of England will almost certainly hold rates at 5.25% on Thursday as officials wait for more data, particularly on wages and services, on how durable the recent fall in inflation might be.Price growth in Britain has slowed from 11.1% in October 2022 to 4% in January. February's consumer price index inflation figures are due on Wednesday and are expected to show a further fall to 3.6%. Sterling was broadly unchanged from Friday at $1.2379. It fell 1.2% last week as U.S. inflation data beat expectations, boosting bets that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer and causing the dollar to rally. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2828(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2857(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2715(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2623(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, arresting its recent decline, as oil prices rose and traders awaited domestic inflation data that could offer clues on the prospect of interest rate cuts. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose to a four-month high on lower crude exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the United States. U.S. crude futures settled up 2.1% at $82.72 a barrel. Canadian consumer price index data for February, due on Tuesday, is expected to show inflation increasing to an annual rate of 3.1% from 2.9% in January. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3535 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.88 U.S. cents, after hitting a nine-day low at 1.3551 on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3573 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3610(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3500(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3443(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Monday as investors are focused on the Bank of Japan's decision on Tuesday, which could see the central bank end eight years of negative interest rates. The yen has had a whirlwind few weeks, weakening to 150.88 to the dollar last month. It then rebounded to a one-month high of 146.48 at the start of March, on the back of stronger than expected economic data and rising bets that the BOJ is preparing to end eight years of negative interest rates.Bigger-than-expected pay hikes by major Japanese firms cemented expectations that the central bank will exit ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially as soon as at its meeting on Tuesday. The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen at 149.09 yen per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.23 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.51 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 146.82 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday, led by a slump in the telecommunications sector, while German bond yields inched up after euro zone inflation came in as expected in February.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax closed down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.04 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes closed higher on Monday, with megacap growth stocks such as Alphabet and Tesla supporting a rebound in technology-heavy Nasdaq while investors also waited anxiously for the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting this week.
Dow Jones was up by 0.20%percent, S&P 500 was up by 0.63% percent, Nasdaq was up by 0.82% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed after dipping to one-week lows on Monday as investors awaited a series of central bank meetings this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, to pick up on clues on inflation and interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,159.29 per ounce at 10.08 a.m. EDT (1408 GMT) after hitting its lowest level since March 7 earlier in the session. Bullion had hit a record high of $2,194.99 on March 8.
Oil prices climbed about 2% to a four-month high on Monday on lower crude exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the U.S.
Brent futures rose $1.55, or 1.8%, to settle at $86.89 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.68, or 2.1%, to settle at $82.72.
