Market Roundup
• Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Oct) 51.7 ,61.6 previous
• Canada Ivey PMI (Oct) 52.4, 55.2forecast, 59.8 previous
• US Natural Gas Storage 33B,34B forecast, 74B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 23:50 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -351.4B previous
• 23:50 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 1,344.2B previous
•03:00 China Exports (Oct): 8.40M previous
•03:00 China Imports (Oct): 7.50M previous
•03:00 China Trade Balance (Oct): 705.00B forecast, 645.47B previous
•03:00 China Exports (YoY) (Oct): 3.0% forecast, 8.3% previous
•03:00 China Imports (YoY) (Oct): 3.2% forecast, 7.4% previous
• 03:00 China Trade Balance (USD) (Oct): 96.90B forecast, 90.45B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened sharply on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened following signs of labor market softness, bolstering expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut this year.A report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that U.S.-based employers cut over 150,000 jobs in October, marking the largest reduction for the month in more than two decades, as industries accelerate AI-driven restructuring and cost-cutting efforts.With the U.S. government in its longest-ever shutdown, investors have increasingly turned to private-sector data for economic insight, amplifying the market’s reaction to labor reports.On the European data front, Eurozone retail sales unexpectedly slipped 0.1% in September, missing forecasts for a 0.2% rise, though annual growth held steady at 1.0%. Meanwhile, German industrial production rose 1.3% in September, below expectations, as gains in autos and electronics were partly offset by weaker mechanical engineering output .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1539(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1590(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1475(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1455(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling bounced on Thursday after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged but left signs it could cut rates next month after the government's budget. The Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday, but a close vote and indications that Governor Andrew Bailey may soon favor a cut leave the door open for easing after the government’s budget later this month.The MPC voted 5-4 to keep rates at 4%, with Breeden, Ramsden, Dhingra, and Taylor favoring a cut to 3.75%. Economists had expected a 6-3 split to hold the Bank Rate steady.Thursday’s decision marked the first pause in the BoE’s gradual rate-cut cycle, which has been occurring roughly every three months since August 2024.Bailey said he needs a sustained slowdown in inflation before considering rate cuts. UK inflation held at 3.8% in September, below the BoE’s 4% forecast, with market pricing reflecting his stance.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3143(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3253(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3037(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3000(Psychological level).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar pared earlier losses against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market triggered broad-based declines in the greenback.The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies after a report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that U.S.-based employers cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, marking the largest reduction for the month in over 20 years. The data reinforced expectations of another Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought to temper such expectations last week, noting that another reduction in borrowing costs at the December 9–10 policy meeting was “not a foregone conclusion.On the domestic front, Canadian economic activity grew at a slower pace in October as prices edged higher, according to the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The seasonally adjusted index fell to 52.4 from 59.8 in September, indicating a cooling pace of expansion.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4144(23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4160(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4050(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4030(SMA 20).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the Japanese yen on Thursday after data signaled further weakness in the U.S. labor market, reinforcing expectations for another Federal Reserve rate cut this year. As the U.S. government shutdown continues, investors are grappling with a shortage of official economic data at a time when the data-dependent Federal Reserve is evaluating the need for additional rate cuts in the near term. With government reporting largely halted, private-sector sources have stepped in to fill the void. On Thursday, executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that corporate layoff announcements surged by 183.1% in October from the previous month marking the worst October in more than two decades. Companies cited cost-cutting measures and efforts related to artificial intelligence as the primary reasons for the job reductions.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.58(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.90 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 152.98 (SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks slipped on Thursday, diverging from gains in Asia and Wall Street, while the pound rebounded slightly as traders assessed the chances of an early rate cut.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.31 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.36 percent.
U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as renewed weakness in tech shares and rising economic uncertainty dampened market sentiment.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.84 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 1.12 percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 1.90 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched higher on Thursday, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand amid concerns over a prolonged U.S. government shutdown and uncertainty surrounding the legality of U.S. tariffs.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,989.91 per ounce by 1:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled little changed at $3,991.
Oil prices fell on Thursday amid concerns over a potential supply glut and weakening U.S. demand.
Brent crude futures settled down 14 cents, or 0.22%, to $63.38 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 17 cents, or 0.29%, to $59.43.
