Market Roundup
• Market still on high alert for yen intervention
•U.S. continuing jobless claims rise in latest week
•U.S. durables fall unexpectedly
•Final U.S. GDP number for Q1 down from Q4
•Fed's Bostic says he sees one rate cut in 2024
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q1) 1.5%, 2.0% forecast, 3.3% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q1) 1.8%, 1.7% forecast, 3.9% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q1) 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 1.8% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q1)3.70%, 3.60% forecast,2.00% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q1)1.4%,1.3% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 3.1%,3.1% forecast, 1.7% previous
•US May Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.1%,-0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US May Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) -0.6%, 0.3% previous
•US May Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -0.1%,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•US May Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.0%,0.3% previous
•US May Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-0.5% previous
•US May Goods Trade Balance -100.62B,-96.00B forecast,-99.41B previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims233K, 236K forecast,238K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 236.00K,232.75K previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM)-0.1% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims1,839K,1,820K forecast,1,828K previous
•US Pending May Home Sales (MoM) -2.1%,0.6% forecast,-7.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•01:30 Australia May Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•01:30 Australia May Housing Credit 0.4% previous
•05:00 Japan May Construction Orders (YoY) 26.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as U.S. dollar drifted lower pressured by softening data in the world's largest economy. U.S. reports showed that jobless claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to 233,000 for the week ended June 22. However, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 18,000 to 1.839 million during the week ending June 15.At the same time, new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in May, suggesting business spending on equipment weakened in the second quarter.More data showed that economic growth moderated sharply in the first quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a slightly upwardly revised 1.4% annualized rate last quarter, but down from the 3.4% registered in last three months of 2023. The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0704.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0727(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0746(38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0680(23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0634(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged up on Thursday, heading for its first weekly gain in a month, as the dollar eased ahead of U.S. inflation data that could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than markets currently anticipate. Friday's report on the core U.S. personal consumptions expenditure index (PCE), which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to show it has moderated to a rate of 2.6% in May, from 2.8% in April.This is the Fed's preferred measure of consumer inflation and could influence traders' thinking on where U.S. rates could go this year.Futures markets show investors are sure the Fed will cut rates at least once this year, with roughly a 50/50 chance of a second cut, largely in line with expectations for the Bank of England. ,More immediately, however, the focus for markets and for sterling in particular, are the upcoming elections in France and Britain. Sterling rose 0.2% to $1.2643. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2685(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2775(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2637(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2586(61.8% fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as oil prices rose, but the moves was limited ahead of U.S. inflation data and a domestic GDP report. Investors awaited the release on Friday of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, as well as Canadian GDP data for April. Economists forecast Canada's economy expanding by 0.3%. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, rose as supply disruption risks from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East helped to counter demand fears. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1% higher at $81.74 a barrel. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3690 to the U.S. dollar, after moving in a range of 1.3677 to 1.3712.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3715(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3745 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.36704(38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3665 (50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar held near 38 year high against yen on Thursday as traders remained on high alert for any signs of Japanese intervention to prop up the currency. The Japanese currency has fallen some 2% this month and 12% for the year against a resilient dollar, as it continues to be hammered by stark interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan, which has maintained the appeal of using the yen as a funding currency for carry trades.In a carry trade, an investor borrows in a currency with low interest rates and invests the proceeds in higher-yielding assets. The yen was slightly up against the greenback at 160.76 per dollar , having fallen to a low of 160.88 on Wednesday, its weakest since December 1986. Strong resistance can be seen at 160.83(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.41 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 158.02(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Thursday on investor caution ahead of crucial global economic data and the first round of French elections, while retailer H&M sank after missing quarterly profit forecasts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.08 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.69 percent.
U.S. stocks ended Thursday around the unchanged mark as investors awaited fresh inflation data, with the Nasdaq able to eke out a slight gain after data showed a continued slowdown in economic activity, raising investors' hope for rate cuts..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.09 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.09 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.30 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday from the over two-week low touched in the previous session, as the dollar softened and the spotlight shifted to key U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Spot gold was up 1.2%, at 2,324.53 per ounce as of 1804 GMT, after falling to its lowest level since June 10 on Wednesday.U.S. gold futures settled 1% higher, at $2,336.6.
Oil futures settled higher on Thursday on worries about global crude supply disruptions as geopolitical pressure in the Middle East and Europe mounted, while a surprise increase in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories gave prices a ceiling.
Brent crude oil futures settled up $1.14, or 1.34%, to $86.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled up by 84 cents, or 1.04%, at $81.74.
