Market Roundup
•Italian Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 46.9, forecast: 48.8, 48.3 previous
•French Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 44.5, forecast: 44.5, 44.6 previous
•German Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 43.0, forecast: 42.6, 40.6 previous
•EU Manufacturing PMI (Oct): 46.0, forecast: 45.9, 45.0 previous
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Nov): -12.8, forecast: -12.7, -13.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 EUR French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.531% previous
•14:00 EUR French 3-Month BTF Auction: 3.055% previous
•14:00 EUR French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.778% previous
•15:00 USD CB Employment Trends Index (Oct): 108.48 previous
•15:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Sep): -1.1% previous
•15:00 USD Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Sep): 0.4% previous
•15:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Sep): -0.4% previous
•15:00 USD Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Sep): -0.1% previous
•15:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (Oct): 15.60M, previous: 15.80M previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.490% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.325% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 16:45 German Buba Balz Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday fresh data indicated that euro zone manufacturing showed some signs of stabilisation in October. Investor morale in the euro zone rose for a second consecutive month in November, though by slightly less than expected, as somewhat greater satisfaction with the current situation boosted the overall mood, a survey showed on Monday.
The Sentix index for the euro zone rose to -12.8 in November from -13.8 in October, falling slightly short of the forecast from analysts polled by Reuters of a rise to -12.5 this month.The survey of 1,066 investors from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 showed expectations stagnating at -3.8 points this month. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0914(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0953(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0858 (5SMA).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors turned their focus to the Bank of England's upcoming interest rate decision on Thursday. The Bank of England is widely expected to cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75% at the November meeting. Though, in light of the autumn budget and the subsequent reaction in the gilt market, the rhetoric and economic projections may be of greater importance for the pound.The voting pattern will also garner attention. The consensus is for a 7-2 split, but recent changes on the MPC may lead to a slightly more dovish 8-1 split, in which Catherine Mann is the lone dissenter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3029(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2953(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 12860(23.6%fib).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dipped on Monday as investors geared up for this week's highly anticipated U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The U.S. election due Tuesday is set to be a high-stakes event as polls reflect Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in a neck-and-neck race to win. The election will be followed by the Fed's interest-rate decision on Thursday, where market participants see higher odds for a 25-basis-point cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6022(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6053(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5977 (5SMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5951(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Monday as dollar weakened as investors focused on U.S. Federal Reserve officials' comments for further rate cut cues. The Nov. 5 U.S. election has entered its final stretch, with opinion polls showing a neck and neck race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. In the betting market too, Trump and Harris are nearly deadlocked. The U.S. Federal Reserve's Nov. 6-7 policy meeting will be on the radar alongside the U.S. elections. The central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, and market participants will be on the watch out for cues on what comes next. Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.72(5SMA) an upside break can trigger rise towards 153.47(23.6 %fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.48(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 151.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were flat on Monday as losses in technology stocks offset gains in resources-linked shares, while focus remained on the U.S. presidential election.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.66 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Monday as investor caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. presidential election and looming Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.
Spot gold held its ground to stand at $2,738.27 an ounce at 1053 GMT, having hit a record high of $2,790.15 last Thursday.U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% at $2,747.10.
Oil prices rose about 3% on Monday on a decision by OPEC+ to delay by a month plans to increase output, while the market braced for a crucial week that includes the U.S. presidential election.
Brent futures were up $2.13 per barrel, or 2.9%, to $75.23 a barrel at 1123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $2.15 a barrel, or 3.1%, to $71.64.
