Market roundup
• Chinese GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.9%, 1.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
• Chinese GDP (YoY) (Q3) 4.6%, 4.6% forecast, 4.7% previous
• Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3) 4.8%, - , 5.0% previous
• Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 5.4%, 4.6% forecast, 4.5% previous
• Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Sep) 5.8%, - , 5.8% previous
• Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 3.2%, 2.5% forecast, 2.1% previous
• Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Sep) 3.30%, - , 3.36% previous
• Chinese Unemployment Rate (Sep) 5.1%, 5.3% forecast, 5.3% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 1.1% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 4.0%, 3.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 3.9%, 3.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) 0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 EUR Current Account (Aug) 42.2B forecast, 39.6B previous
•08:00 EUR Current Account n.s.a. (Aug) 48.0B previous
•09:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Aug) 0.00% previous
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Sep) 89.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded near three month low against dollar on Friday as investors duigested ECB’s rate decision. European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut, even though it refrained from offering new clues about its next move. The ECB reduced its interest rates by 25 bps, following a similar-sized cut in September, which marked its first back-to-back rate cuts in 13 years.However, the central bank did not provide any indication about future moves in its statement and instead repeated its mantra that decisions will be data-dependent.This came in the face of money markets' expectations of three further reductions through March 2025. Inflation in the euro zone is now increasingly under control and the economic outlook has worsened. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0847(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0866(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0820(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Friday after data UK retail sales unexpectedly rose in September. British retail sales unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in September, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Friday, boosted by the launch of the latest iPhone and other technology products. The ONS said telecoms and computers were the main drivers of non-food sales, with the sectors jumping by almost 35% in monthly terms in September. A poll of economists had forecast a monthly fall of 0.3% in sales volumes from August.Sterling rose by more than a third of a cent against the U.S. dollar after the data was published. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar hovered near a two-month low as the New Zealand dollar remained under pressure from the strength of the US dollar. US dollar firmed after U.S. retail sales growth camehigher than expected and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets are largely expecting the RBNZ to implement another 50-bps cut in November, though a smaller possibility of a 75-bps reduction remains. At (GMT 06:56) Kiwi dollar was trading at up 0.06% at $0.6063 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Friday after Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura warned about currency movements, emphasizing that excess volatility is undesirable.The dollar touched 150 yen for the first time since Aug. 1 after solid U.S. retail sales data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will pursue modest interest rate cuts over the next year-and-a-half as the world's largest economy remained resilient.The yen has been volatile in recent months, first driven higher by the Bank of Japan's unexpected rate hike in late July and then pushed lower by receding concerns about the U.S. economy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.30 (23.6 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.45(Oct 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 148.67(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks traded cautiously on Friday after a mixed reading on the health of China's economy, while Japanese markets were buoyed by a weaker yen.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng traded 3.45% higher, South Korea's KOSPI slipped 0.58%, Japan's Nikkei added 0.11%.
Commodities Recap
Gold breached the $2,700-per-ounce level on Friday for the first time ever, as U.S. election jitters and simmering Middle East tensions boosted safe-haven demand, while a looser monetary policy environment also added fuel to the rally.
Spot gold firmed 0.6% to $2,709.28 per ounce by 0430 GMT and gained 2% this week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,724.50.
Crude oil futures steadied on Friday after strong U.S. retail sales data and the emergence of more fiscal stimulus to boost China's economy, though prices were still headed for their biggest weekly loss in more than a month.
Brent crude futures gained 26 cents, or 0.4%, to $74.71 a barrel by 0648 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.96 a barrel, up 29 cents, or 0.4%.
