Market Roundup
•02:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct) -0.9% forecast, -0.5% previous
•02:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 5.5% forecast, 6.5% previous
•02:00 China Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Oct) 6.2% previous
•02:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) 2.7% forecast, 3.0% previous
•02:00 China Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Oct) 3.48% previous
•02:00 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Oct) 5.2% forecast, 5.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•04:30 Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Sep) -4.30 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as positive sentiment following the reopening of the U.S. government outweighed weak Eurozone industrial production data.U.S. President Donald Trump signed the bill to end the government's shutdown in the Oval Office on Wednesday.Investors now await delayed U.S. economic data, particularly labor market indicators, for clues on the Fed's policy stance.Delayed economic data is expected to begin rolling out next week, with October’s payroll figures likely arriving first. Attention will center on whether they confirm the recent private surveys indicating softness in the labor market.Euro zone industrial production rose much less than expected in September, as strong performances from major economies were offset by volatility among large foreign firms based in Ireland for tax reasons. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1711(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1642(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1584(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1574(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as the U.S. government reopened, leaving traders grappling with the long-term impact the shutdown will have on trust in the U.S. currency and ahead of a deluge of data on the health of the economy.The shutdown was the U.S. government's longest, snarling air traffic, cutting food assistance to low-income Americans and forcing more than 1 million workers to go unpaid for more than a month.White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Thursday the government would release the closely watched employment report for October, but without the jobless rate because the household survey wasn't conducted during the month.
The data could influence Federal Reserve policy, though the trajectory of interest rates for now remains murky. On the data front, Britain's economic performance showed minimal momentum in the third quarter, with growth hampered by a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover in September.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3198(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3243(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2977(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as rising doubts about the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates further next month contributed to increased risk aversion.Alberto Musalem, who runs the St. Louis Fed Bank, said there was limited room to ease further without becoming overly accommodative, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said interest rate policy should remain restrictive in order to put downward pressure on inflation.Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg that he opposed a rate cut last month and is on the fence about December.The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.3% higher at $58.69 a barrel, clawing back a small part of the previous day's sharp decline.The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.4030 per U.S. dollar , after moving in a range of 1.3986 to 1.403.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4039(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4139(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3954(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3908(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday as yen recovered some ground on expectations of Japanese intervention risks. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a fresh verbal warning about the yen’s weakness on Wednesday as it neared 155 per dollar, highlighting “one-sided and rapid movements” in the foreign exchange market.A weak yen could force the BOJ's hand, leading to a hike next month. Traders see a 24% chance of a quarter-point increase to the key rate in December, rising to 46% odds for a hike by January. Japan's yen has come under renewed pressure as the country's new premier has been pushing the central bank to go slow on further rate rises.The Japanese yen has already fallen below levels that previously triggered Tokyo's intervention and is now approaching 155 per dollar, a level that many Japanese companies consider a critical pain point.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.04(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.90 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.00 (Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 153.39 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares ended lower on Thursday as investors turned their attention to key U.S. economic data following the conclusion of the nation’s longest government shutdown, while Siemens shares dropped after a disappointing earnings report.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.05 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.39 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.11 percent.
Wall Street closed sharply lower on Thursday, weighed down by steep losses in Nvidia and other AI-related stocks, as investors scaled back expectations for interest rate cuts amid inflation concerns and differing views among Fed officials on the U.S. economy’s outlook.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.65 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.65 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.29 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pulled back after hitting a three-week high earlier in the session, amid the broad market sell-off following the reopening of the U.S. government.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,169.10 an ounce. U.S. gold futures GCc1 fell 0.13% to $4,199.00 an ounce.
Oil prices remained mostly steady on Thursday following a roughly 4% drop in the previous session, as investors balanced worries over global oversupply with potential sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil.
Brent crude futures rose 30 cents, or 0.5%, to $63.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $58.69 a barrel, after a decline of 4.2% on Wednesday.
