Market Roundup
• US Core PPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Core PPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.3%, 3.6% forecast, 3.5% previous
• US PPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US PPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.7%, 3.3% forecast, 3.2% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Mar) 0.1%, 0.4% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Mar) 3.4%, 3.5% previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 6.7%, 5.0% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 4.4%, 4.3% forecast, 4.1% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr) 47.2, 50.8 forecast, 52.6 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 50.8, 54.0 forecast, 57.0 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Apr) 56.5, 61.5 forecast, 63.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:10 China Exports (Mar) -1.90M previous
•07:10 China Imports (Mar) 2.50M previous
•07:10 China Trade Balance (Mar) 228.19B previous
•07:10 China Exports (YoY) (Mar) 2.3% previous
•07:10 China Imports (YoY) (Mar) -8.4% previous
•07:10 China Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) 170.52B previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 ECOFIN Meetings
•10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro surged to a three-year high on Friday as the dollar continued its decline, marking a turbulent end to a week of escalating global tariffs that stoked recession fears and shook confidence in U.S. assets. China raised its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% from 84%, retaliating against President Trump’s decision to increase duties on Chinese goods to 145%, despite pausing tariff hikes on other countries. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde reassured markets that the ECB was prepared to use its tools to maintain financial stability, citing its solid track record in navigating economic turbulence. The euro rose 1.25% to $1.1358, its highest level since February 2022, and is on track for its largest weekly gain since early last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1402(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1580(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1267(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1185(Daily low).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar and positive UK GDP data. Britain’s economy grew by 0.5% in February, far surpassing the expected 0.1% increase, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.4%, exceeding the forecasted 0.9%. The ONS also revised January’s GDP estimate from a 0.1% decline to flat growth, indicating no change from December. Investors remained cautious on Friday due to ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and growing recession fears. China retaliated by raising its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, in response to President Trump's decision to increase duties on Chinese goods to 145%, further escalating the tit-for-tat trade war between the world's two largest economies. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3145(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3214(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3023(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2961(Daily low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose to a five-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, driven by concerns over the unpredictable nature of U.S. trade policy, which pressured the greenback. Investors were shaken by a mix of tariff reprieves and retaliations, including U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on Wednesday of a 90-day tariff freeze for dozens of impacted countries, alongside an additional hike in tariffs on Chinese goods to an effective rate of 145%, factoring in earlier levies. China retaliated on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump escalated tensions by raising tariffs on Chinese goods to an effective rate of 145%, despite offering a 90-day tariff reprieve for most other trading partners. The loonie was trading 0.7% higher at 1.3880 per U.S. dollar , after touching its strongest intraday level since November 6 at 1.3840.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3978 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4070(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3848(23.9%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3800 (Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against Japanese yen on Friday as the ongoing tariff disputes eroded investor confidence in the greenback . China increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% from 84% on Friday, retaliating against U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to hike duties on Chinese goods to a total of 145% after pausing many of his latest tariff hikes on most countries . Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in April while 12-month inflation expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease over the trade tensions. The greenback was down 0.51%at 144.05 yen after hitting its lowest level since September 2024. It is set for its largest weekly drop since early February.Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.11 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.76(Daily high) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.87(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks declined on Friday, with the STOXX 600 marking a third consecutive week of losses. This followed a surge in volatility triggered by sudden shifts in U.S. tariff policies, which heightened concerns about the economic fallout from the ongoing trade war.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.92 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.30 percent.
Wall Street saw solid gains on Friday as major banks kicked off the first-quarter earnings season. Investors ended a turbulent week marked by wild market swings, largely driven by the chaos surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's multi-front trade war.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.56 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.81% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.06% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged past the $3,200 mark on Friday, driven by a weakening dollar and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.
Spot gold was up nearly 2% at $3,235.89 an ounce at 2:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,245.28 earlier in the session. Bullion is up over 6% this week.
Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose by more than $1 on Friday following comments from U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who suggested that the United States could end Iran's oil exports as part of efforts to pressure the country over its nuclear program.
Brent crude futures settled at $64.76 a barrel, up $1.43, or 2.26%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $61.50 a barrel, up $1.43 or 2.38%.
