Europe Roundup: Euro soars in relief rally after Trump's tariff pause ,European shares surge,Gold prices extend gains, Oil retreats-April 10th,2025

Market Roundup

•Spanish 10-Years Obligacion Auction 3.349%,3.382% previous  

•Spanish 7-Years Obligacion Auction 3.014%, 2.809% previous   

• Greek CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.4%,2.5% previous

•Greek HICP (YoY) (Mar)  3.1%,3.0% previous

• Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) -0.1%  , 2.0% previous

• Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 2.120% , 2.337% previous                            

• Portuguese CPI (YoY) (Mar) 1.9%, 1.9% forecast,  2.4% previous            

•Portuguese CPI (MoM) (Mar) 1.4%,-1.4%,-0.1% previous          

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•12:30 US  Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,880K forecast, 1,903K previous

•12:30 US  Core CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.3% forecast ,0.2% previous

•12:30 US  Core CPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.0% forecast ,3.1% previous

•12:30 US  Core CPI Index (Mar): 325.48 previous

•12:30 US  CPI (MoM) (Mar): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous

•12:30 US  CPI (YoY) (Mar): 2.5% forecast, 2.8% previous

•12:30 US  CPI Index, n.s.a. (Mar): 320.17 forecast,  319.08 previous

•12:30 US  CPI Index, s.a. (Mar): 319.78 previous

•12:30 US  CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Mar): 0.44% previous

•12:30 US  Initial Jobless Claims: 223K forecast ,219K previous

•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 223.00K previous

•12:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Mar): 0.1% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)

• 13:30  Fed Logan Speaks                                                          

•14:00  Fed Schmid Speaks                                                         

•14:00   FOMC Member Bowman Speaks 

•16:00   US Fed Goolsbee Speaks

•16:30   US FOMC Member Harker Speaks                                           

Currency Forecast

 EUR/USD: The euro rose higher on Thursday as traders reassessed their positions following President Trump’s surprise move to pause recently imposed tariffs on many countries. The 90-day reprieve came just hours after the tariffs had taken effect under what Trump called "Liberation Day" duties, though a 10% baseline tariff remains on most U.S. imports.However, the relief was not extended to China, as Trump simultaneously escalated pressure by raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, following Beijing’s retaliatory move to impose 84% tariffs on U.S. goods.The announcement triggered volatility across markets, from bonds and commodities to currencies. In Europe, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded by stating the EU would pause its first countermeasures against the U.S., acknowledging the shift in Washington’s trade stance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1078(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1160(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0951(61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened following President Trump’s decision to temporarily lower tariffs on dozens of countries, while raising tariffs on China. This reversal came less than 24 hours after new tariffs had taken effect on most trading partners. Trump also announced a 90-day pause on many of the new reciprocal tariffs, but escalated levies on Chinese imports to 125% from 104%.China retaliated by imposing 84% tariffs on U.S. imports. Investors are now focusing on upcoming consumer price data for March, with concerns that Trump’s tariffs could slow global growth and fuel inflation. Economists expect headline inflation to ease to 2.6% year-on-year from 2.8% in February.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2876(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3026(April 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2704(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2684(Lower BB).

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Thursday, supported by a return of risk-on sentiment after President Trump unexpectedly paused newly imposed reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on most countries. Though Trump kept a 10% baseline tariff, he intensified the trade conflict with China, raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%.Despite the escalation, investors focused on the temporary relief, seeing it as a chance for market stability. The Aussie, widely regarded as a liquid proxy for China due to strong trade ties, gained as traders downplayed the broader implications of the U.S.-China trade tensions and reacted positively to the potential for reduced global uncertainty. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6235(61.8%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6327 (Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6140(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6043(38.2%fib)

USD/JPY: The dollar   declined against Japanese yen on Thursday as traders sought safe-haven assets like the yen after Trump escalated the trade war with China while pausing tariffs for 90 days on other countries.In a surprising move, Trump announced Wednesday he would temporarily reduce recently imposed tariffs on several countries while increasing pressure on China, causing U.S. stocks to surge.That dampened some of the optimism from the overnight tariff pause, as markets grew concerned about the long-term impact on growth and how Trump's economic policies would unfold during his term.Investor optimism surrounding the potential for a U.S.-Japan trade deal also provided a positive catalyst for the Japanese yen  . Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.97(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.24(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.43(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 144.46(23.6%fib).

Equities Recap

European markets rallied sharply on Thursday after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners. The move sparked a major relief rally, easing investor fears following a prolonged market sell-off.

At GMT (12:16) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 3.99 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 4.97 percent, France’s CAC  was up by 4.69 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices rose further on Thursday, fueled by intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions, despite President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause for other countries. Investors turned to the safe-haven metal amid ongoing uncertainty.

Spot gold was up 1.3% at $3,122.02 an ounce at 1129 GMT, after its biggest daily gain since October 2023 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures were up 1.9% at $3,137.80.

Oil prices fell over 2% on Thursday as worries over an escalating U.S.-China trade war and the potential for a recession overshadowed earlier optimism sparked by President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause on most countries.

Brent futures fell $1.77, or 2.7%, to $63.71 a barrel by 1213 GMT. While U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $1.77, or 2.84%, to $60.58.