Market Roundup
- US Current Account Q4 -113.5b, (consensus -103.2b, previous -98.9b)
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 291k, (consensus 292k, previous 290k)
- US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 304.75k, previous 302.50k)
- US Continued Jobless Claims w/e 2.417m, (consensus 2.410m, previous 2.428m)
- US Leading Index Chg MM Feb 0.2%, (consensus 0.2%, previous 0.20%)
- US Philly Fed Business Indx Mar 5, (consensus 7.1, previous 5.20)
- US Philly Fed 6M Index Mar 32, previous 29.70)
- US Philly Fed Capex Index Mar 16.4, (previous 20.90)
- US Philly Fed Employment Mar 3.5, (previous 3.90)
- US Philly Fed Prices Paid Mar -3, (previous 4.70)
- US Philly Fed New Orders Mar 3.9, (previous 5.40)
- Fed's Evans delayed liftoff for interest rates optimal, biggest risk Fed faces today is prematurely engineering restrictive monetary conditions
- BOE's Haldane BOE can ease monetary policy further if needed to tackle low inflation, risk to inflation in the UK & abroad may be skewed to downside, policy needs to stand ready to move in either direction to meet 2% CPI target
- UK FinMin Osborne UK debt will fall to 80.2% of GDP in '15/'16 tax year
- France's Hollande says will tell Greece needs to respect commitments, will do what it can to keep Greece in EZ
- Swedish CB's Skingsley says advantages w/current policy bigger than risks
- China FX regulator finds banks failing to report FX deposits/withdrawals equal to or more than USD 10k
- Fitch oil hit to Norway growth partly offset by krone, wages, sovereign balance sheet is in a strong position to respond to economic shocks
- Brazil's Meirelles says CB monitoring banking, credit related aspects of Petrobras scandal
- Brazil's Rousseff says not planning to shuffle cabinet
- Pimco says US GDP weighed by sluggish export growth held back by stronger USD & capex slowdown in energy sector
- Reuters Poll 26/27 analyst expect Mexican interest rates to remain on hold in March, median expectations are for a hiking cycle to begin in Q3 2015
- No Significant Data
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Bank of Japan will publish the minutes of February policy-setting meeting
- (2100 ET/ 0100 GMT) Australia RBA Gov Glenn Stevens speaks at a luncheon at the American Chamber of Commerce in Sydney
FX Recap
USD/JPY: The greenback keeps pushing higher on Thursday, aiding USD/JPY lift to 121.00. At the the time of writing the pair is up 0.68% at 120.94. Resistance next is at 121.22 (200-h MA) ahead of 121.41 (high ) and finally 121.57 (high ). On the flipside, a break below 119.68 (low ) would expose 119.28 (low ) and then 119.11 (low ). Option expiries Friday 20th March: 120.00 (1.1B), 120.50(900M), 121.00 (3.7B), 121.50 (695M) 122.00 (2.5B)
USD/CAD: USD/CAD is consolidating around 1.2750. The pair quickly shrugged off the selling pressure post-Yellen's presser on Wed, bouncing off the mid-1.2400s. Only releases Friday in the NA session will be Jan's retail sales (-0.7% MoM) and the critical inflation figures in Canada. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2737 up 1.37 pct on the day. Next resistance at 1.2750 (low ) ahead of 1.2800 (psychological level) and then 1.2835 (2015 high ). Supports seen at 1.2507 (low ), 1.2449 (low ) and finally 1.2431 (cloud top). Option expiries Friday 20th March: 1.2700 (250M), 1.2750 (1.2B), 1.2800 (1.2B)
GBP/USD: Sterling was sold aggressively after the BOE economist Haldane hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.4721, down 1.71% on the day, with highs at 1.5013 and lows at 1.4705. After falling 450 pips from post-Fed highs of 1.5160, the Pound found support today at 1.4700 where some buying interest that sent it back to 1.4740. Below 1.4700 supports seen at 1.4630 and 1.4600. On the upside, resistances are at 1.4760, 1.4800 and 1.4845. Option expiries Friday 20th March: 1.4700 (210M), 1.4900 (308M)
AUD/NZD is falling for the second day in a row, hit fresh lows at 1.0312, the lowest since March 5. Currently the pair trades at 1.0320, holding near record lows located at 1.0282. The long term trend remains bearish. If the pair ends the day around current levels it would post the second lowest close ever, exposing the 1.0300 psychological support.
USD/CHF: CHF remains supported by the decision of the Swiss National Bank to leave rates unchanged. USD/CHF has remained steady since European hours, trading range bound between 0.9880 and 0.9940. Immediate support to the downside lie at 0.9870, 0.9835, and 0.9755. On the flipside resistance might lie at 0.9940 and above here 1.000 and 1.0040. Option expiries Friday 20th March: 0.9900 (255M), 1.00 (251M), 1.0100 (401M)
