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The global growth drivers that produced the regional upturn have started to fade. And with that, the economic picture has darkened in recent months with expectations building for a sharper slowdown in 2019, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings titled, "Asia-Pacific Crystal Ball--Mild Economic Slowdown Should Extend Through 2019".
Further, the report does not expect global growth drivers to pick up in 2019 and so growth should keep slowing. Asia-Pacific growth is expected to edge down to 5.3 percent in 2019 from 5.4 percent in 2018, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision from the previous forecast at the end of Q3.
Based on S&P’s estimates, India's growth should remain steady at about 7.6 percent next fiscal year whereas previously we had expected a moderate pick-up. They have also trimmed forecasts by 0.1-0.2 percentage point for Australia, Japan, and across ASEAN.
"We have lowered our forecasts for almost every country in Asia-Pacific, underscoring the global nature of the slowdown. For China, we now expect 6.2% in 2019 (previously 6.3%), which assumes that the government will soften or reduce this year's 6.5% growth target," the report added.
"We believe the direct impact of trade tensions on growth in China isn't a big concern. However, U.S. policies impacting China's technology supply chains could disrupt activity and undermine confidence over a longer horizon," said Shaun Roache, S&P Global Ratings' Asia-Pacific Chief Economist.
