Market Roundup
- Norway's quarterly consumer confidence 1.7 in Q2 vs preliminary 7.4 IN Q1.
- BoJ Gov Kuroda - Confirms not considering lowering interest on excess reserves.
- Japan aims for cut in primary budget deficit to @1% of GDP by FY '18.
- Japan end-April foreign reserves $1.250073 trln, end-March 1.245316 trln.
- Moody's - Currency shifts to widen gap between global economies in '15-16, Stronger USD to dent growth but outlook still robust, EZ boosted by lower oil prices and weaker EUR, China growth to slow gradually, India strongest.
- Big banks to be fined $6 bln+ on FX.
- Australia March owner-occupied housing finance +1.6% m/m, +1.0% eyed,
investment finance +6.4%.
- Sydney real estate: RBA's hand in surging clearance rates - Domain.
- New Zealand April REINZ HPI +0.5% m/m, +9.3% y/y, record level, volume off.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0100 EDT/0500 GMT) Japan Mar leading, coincident indicators; last -0.2, -2.8.
- (0230 EDT/0630 GMT) France April business sentiment index, 98 eyed; last 97.
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Sweden April CPI, +0.3% m/m, +0.2% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +0.2%.
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Sweden April CPIF, +0.5% m/m, +0.9% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +0.9%.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK March industrial output, unchanged m/m, +0.2% y/y eyed; last +0.1%, +0.1%.
- (0430 EDT/0830 GMT) UK March mfg output, +0.3% m/m, +1.0% y/y eyed; last +0.4%, +1.1%.
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) US April NFIB business optimism index; last 95.2.
- (1000 EDT/1400 GMT) US Mar JOLTS job openings, 5.09 mln eyed; last 5.13 mln.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A ECOFIN meeting in Brussels, Sweden bill and Norway bond auctions.
- N/A Italy 12mo BOT, Belgium 3/12mo TC, Spain 6/12mo, Slovenia bill auctions.
- (0230 EDT/0630 GMT) Norges Bank Dep Gov Nicolaisen speech in Sandefjord.
- (0330 EDT/0730 GMT) Riksbank April policy meeting minutes.
- (0400 EDT/0800 GMT) Netherlands E2-3 bln 0.25% 2025 DSL auction.
- (0530 EDT/0930 GMT) Germany E1 bln 0.1% 2026 index-linked Bund auction.
- (0530 EDT/0930 GMT) ECB 7-day refinance at fixed 0.05%, E95 bln allotment eyed, last E95.2 bln.
- N/A US State Small Business Credit Initiative conference in Washington, DC.
- (0900 EDT/1300 GMT) Ex-Fed Greenspan speech at Washington, DC IFC conference.
- (1245 EDT/1645 GMT) SF Fed Williams speech in New York.
- (1700 EDT/2100 GMT) RBNZ fiscal stability report.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1156 levels after making intraday low at 1.1134. Today ECOFIN meeting will be main focus for the further direction of the pair. Pair is trying to hold above 1.1125 levels. Initial support is seen at 1.1066 and resistance at 1.1220 levels.
USD/JPY turns up side and currently trading above 120.00 levels and made high of 120.19 levels. Today is data free session for JPY. On the top side, the next resistance is located at 120.30 (May 1 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.54 (May 5 High) levels. Immediate support might be located at 120 below that at 119.43 (May 11 Low) levels.
GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.5572 levels and made a high of 1.5581. Sterling is appreciating after BOE leaves key rate steady as expected. Pair has formed double top around 1.5500 and retreating from that level. UK will release Manufacturing production data as well as industrial production data. Technically GBP/USD broke major resistance around 1.5525 and next target will be 1.5640/15745 in short term. Support is seen at 1.5372 levels.
USD/CHF touched the low at 0.9329 levels and currently trading at 0.9335 levels. It has made high of 0.9357 levels. As today is data free session for Switzerland, expecting less movement. Near term support is seen at 0.9303, 0.9267 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9367, 0.9412 levels.
AUD/USD is trading at 0.7916 and made intraday low at 0.7886 levels. The Australian dollar reversed previous losses and advanced against the US dollar in the mid-Asian session, following upbeat Australian home loans data while Fitch ratings confirmed that Australia's AAA rating is not at risk also boosted the Aussie. Markets now await Australian Annual budget release to be published in the European session for impact on the pair. Initial support is seen at 0.7859 and resistance at 0.7952 levels.
