Market Roundup
- NZ Q1 retail sales +2.7% q/q, biggest gain ever, +5.1% y/y, +1.5%/+4.9% expected.
- NZ April PMI 51.8, three-month low, March revised up to 54.6.
- Japan MoF flow data week-ended May 9 - Japanese buy net Y96.3 bln foreign stocks, Y492.6 bln bonds, 92.1 bln bills; foreign investors buy net Y72.7 bln Japanese stocks, Y145.3 bln bonds, trln bills.
- MoF flow data week-ended May 2 - Japanese buy net Y244.8 bln foreign stocks, sell Y392.1 bln bonds, Y14.3 bln bills; foreign investors sell net Y205.6 bln Japanese stocks, buy Y225.3 bln bonds, sell trln bills.
- Japan money supply M2 +3.6% y/y, M3 +3.0%, broadest liquidity +3.1%, March +3.6%, +3.0%, +3.3%.
- UK April RICS house price balance +33, +22 eyed, highest since Aug '14, March revised up to +22.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April PPI, +0.2% m/m, -0.8% y/y eyed; last +0.2%, -0.8%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April - ex-f/e, +0.1% m/m, +1.1% y/y eyed; last +0.2%, +0.9%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April w/e initial jobless claims, 275k eyed; last 265k.
Key Events Ahead
- N/A Economist Athens roundtable, various speakers (till tomorrow).
- N/A EBRD annual meeting/business forum in Tbilisi (till tomorrow).
- (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Ireland E750 mln 0.8% 2022 IGB auction.
- (0530 ET/0930 GMT) UK DMO bln 2.0% 2020 Gilt auction.
- N/A IMF event, IMF Lagarde opening remarks, ECB Pres Draghi lecture.
- N/A BoE Bailey at Washington, DC meeting on commodities.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) BoC semi-annual review.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) BoE Kohn speech in London.
- (1530 ET/1930 GMT) BoC DepGov Patterson speech in Vancouver.
FX Recap
EUR/USD broke 1.1346 (February 10 High) and supported above 1.1300 levels. It is currently trading at 1.1370 levels, made high at 1.1382 levels. USD is depreciated against major pairs after US retail sales data released yesterday with negative numbers. Today is bank holiday in Germany and France so there will be less movement. 1.1407 is an immediate resistance and if that holds we may see a short dip. Initial support is seen around 1.1279 levels.
USD/JPY turns downside after US retail sales data and currently trading at 119.13 levels and made low of 119.09 levels. Today is data free session for Japan. On the top side, the next resistance is located at 120.30 (May 1 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.54 (May 5 High) levels. Immediate support might be located at 118.85 levels.
GBP/USD made a new high at 1.5768 levels and currently trading at 1.5757 levels, largely on the back of UK job data, Inflation report and negative USD sales data.UK released RICS house price balance with positive numbers. There is no other major data from UK. The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5797 above which gains could be extended to 1.5845 levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.5600.
USD/CHF is continuously falling down side and trading around 0.9152 levels and made low at 0.9148 levels. Swiss banks will be closed in observance of Ascension Day. Today is data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9070 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9227 levels.
AUD/USD made intraday high at 0.8162 levels and trading at 0.8123 levels. AUD is performing surprisingly well despite market volatility caused by bond overthrow. It is also benefitting from commodity gain and negative USD retail sales data. Today is no major data schedule for Australia. Markets now eagerly await US PPI and weekly jobless claims due later in a day. Initial support is seen at 0.8092 and resistance at 0.8239 levels.
