Asia Round Up: Aussie jumps on upbeat GDP data- June 3rd, 2015

Market Roundup

• BOJ PB Shirai - CPI likely at 2% target at end-FY '16, average likely at 1%, Downside risks greater, QQE appropriate but room for more ease if prices weaken sharply, chance small.
  
  
• China May HSBC services PMI 53.5, April 52.9, new business up most since '12.
  
  
• Australia Q1 GDP +0.9% q/q, +2.3% y/y, +0.7/+2.1% eyed, chain prices unchanged.
  
  
• Australia May AIG PSI -0.1 pt to 49.6.
  
  
• Australia May VFACTS new vehicle sales +14.3% m/m, -1.3% y/y, one less day.
  
  
• RBNZ - Lending rules dampening hot Auckland house prices, turnover.
  
  
• New Zealand May commodity prices -4.7% m/m, -17.8% y/y, dairy leads, April -7.4% m/m.
  
  
• NZ Fonterra GDT price index -4.3%, plumb 6-year low, volumes up however.

Economic Data Ahead

• (0200 ET/0600 GMT) UK May nationwide house price index, +0.4% m/m eyed; last +1.0%.
  
  
• (0230 ET/0630 GMT) Sweden May PMI services, 55.9 eyed; last 53.9.
  
  
• (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Spain May PMI services, 59.3 eyed; last 60.3.
  
  
• (0345 ET/0745 GMT) Italy May PMI services, 52.7 eyed; last 53.1.
  
  
• (0350 ET/0750 GMT) France May PMI services, 51.6 eyed; flash 51.6.

• (0350 ET/0750 GMT) France May PMI composite; flash 51.0.
  
  
• (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany May PMI services, 52.9 eyed; flash 52.9.

• (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany May PMI composite; flash 52.8.
  
  
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone May PMI services, 53.3 eyed; flash 53.3.

• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone May PMI composite, 53.4 eyed; flash 53.4.
  
  
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Italy April unemployment, 12.8% eyed; last 13.0%.
  
  
• (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway Q1 current account balance; last bln surplus.
  
  
• (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May PMI services, 59.2 eyed; last 59.5.
  
  
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Norway May housing prices; last +7.9% y/y.
  
  
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro Zone April retail sales, +0.7% m/m, +2.0% y/y eyed; last -0.8%, +1.6%.

• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Euro Zone April unemployment, 11.2% eyed; last 11.3%.
  
  
• (0815 ET/1215 GMT) US May ADP national employment, +200k eyed; last +169k.
  
  
• (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April international trade balance, $44.0 bln deficit eyed; last $-51.4 bln deficit.
  
  
• (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US May Markit PMI services; flash 56.4.
  
  
• (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US May Markit PMI composite; flash 56.1.
  
  
• (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May ISM non-mfg index, 57.0 eyed; last 57.8, new orders 59.3.

Key Events Ahead

• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Buba Dombret speech in Jakarta.
  
  
• N/A World Economic Forum on Africa in Cape Town (till June 5).
  
  
• N/A Greece PM Tsipras. EC Pres Juncker meeting in Brussels.
  
  
• N/A Paris OECD Forum '15 (final day)/econ outlook, Luxembourg Renmenbi Forum.
  
  
• N/A BoE MPC begins two-day policy meeting, Sweden government bond auction.
  
  
• (0500 ET/0900 GMT) Riksbank Financial Stability Report, Gov Ingves press conference.
  
  
• (0630 ET/1030 GMT) Germany E3 bln zero coupon 2020 Bond auction.
  
  
• (0745 ET/1145 GMT) ECB policy announcement, no change in 0.05% refinance, -0.2% deposit rates eyed.
  
  
• (0830 ET/1230 GMT) ECB Pres Draghi press conference.
  
  
• (1400 ET/1800 GMT) Fed Beige Book release.
  
  
• (1415 ET/1815 GMT) Chicago Fed Evans speech at Chicago symposium.
  
  
• (1600 ET/2000 GMT) St Louis Fed Bullard speaks in St Louis.

FX Recap

EUR/USD is supported just above 1.1150 levels and currently trading at 1.1157 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.1174 and low at 1.1132 levels. Pair soared on Tuesday with no clear catalyst behind the movement, other than German bund yields surging and hopes of an imminent deal between Greece and its creditors. The ECB is having is monthly economic meeting today later in a day and upcoming EUR direction will depend on Draghi's speech and the developments of Athens' negotiations with its creditors. Initial support is seen at 1.1050 and resistance is seen around 1.1245 levels.

USD/JPY is supported just below 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.22 levels. It has made intraday low at 123.85 and currently trading at 123.95 levels. The pair keeps losses as the greenback remains undermined by strengthening EUR/USD as markets remain optimistic about Greece and also continue to cheer the recent upbeat EZ CPI data. Moreover, the yen also staged a solid comeback versus the US dollar after disappointing factory orders data from the US dragged the greenback lower across the board. Near term resistance is seen at 124.24 levels and support is seen at 123.51 levels.

GBP/USD is supported above $1.5300. It made an intraday high at 1.5359 and low at 1.5328 levels. Pair is currently trading at 1.5255 levels. Today UK will release housing price Index data. Initial support is seen at 1.5278 and resistance is seen around 1.5474 levels.

USD/CHF is supported above 0.9300 levels and trading at 0.9328 levels and made intraday low at 0.9322 and high at 0.9343 levels. Today was data free session for Switzerland. Near term support is seen at 0.9285 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9430 levels.

AUD/USD is supported around 0.7800 levels and trading at 0.7796 levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7817 levels and low at 0.7755 levels. The Aussie maintained a bid tone this session, boosted by upbeat Q1 GDP numbers which unexpectedly beat market expectations. Australia's economy grew 0.9% in the March quarter, against forecasts of GDP growth of 0.7% in Q1, after the economy grew only 0.5% in the December quarter. Initial support is seen at 0.7689 and resistance at 0.7877 levels.