Market Roundup
• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 52.6, 50.4 previous
• Australia Judo Judo Bank Services PMI (Mar) 51.2, 50.8 previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.3, 49.2 forecast, 49.0 previous
• Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Mar) 49.5, 53.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:15 HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 46.2 forecast, 45.8 previous
•08:15 HCOB France Services PMI (Mar): 46.3 forecast, 45.3 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Mar): 51.2 forecast, 50.4 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 47.1 forecast, 46.5 previous
•08:30 HCOB Germany Services PMI (Mar): 52.3 forecast, 51.1 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 48.3 forecast, 47.6 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Mar): 51.2 forecast, 50.6 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar): 47.3 forecast, 46.9 previous
•09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar): 51.2 forecast, 51.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro firmed against dollar on Monday as traders cautiously awaited clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump's next round of tariffs. The shared currency had been buoyed to the highest since early October at $1.0955 last week on optimism over Germany's move to loosen fiscal constraints in order to boost military and infrastructure spending. However, the currency slipped back in recent days in the lead up to the actual ratification of the change, with Germany's upper house of parliament passing the bill on the so-called debt brake on Friday. Euro area PMI data will be a key driver for the euro this week, with forecasts suggesting a modest improvement in economic activity in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Monday as markets prepared for a busy week filled with key UK data releases and major events. UK finance minister Rachel reeves is set to deliver a half-yearly budget update on Wednesday, which could impact market sentiment. UK finance minister is expected to announce spending cuts in response to rising government borrowing, signaling a tighter fiscal approach. Last October, in her first full budget, Reeves sought to win the trust of investors by pledging to bring day-to-day spending into balance with tax revenue by the end of the decade.BoE governor Andrew Bailey will speak on Monday, while key UK economic data, including inflation figures and final Q4 GDP, are due this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar traded sideways against dollar on Monday as traders awaited Australia’s Federal budget and monthly inflation data for further rate policy clarity.The Australian government is poised to announce a return to deficit on Tuesday, ending a two-year surplus streak, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese rolls out house old measures aimed at strengthening his re-election bid.Looking ahead , Australia’s February inflation data is due on Wednesday, with forecasts predicting a 2.5% annual increase.Focus will be on the trimmed mean measure, which includes key service sectors where price pressures remain high.At GMT 05:43, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.16% to $0.6279. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6347(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6392(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as disappointing Japan’s business activity data weighed on yen. Japan’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in a year in March, as declines in production and new orders signaled economic weakness, according to a private-sector survey released Monday. The AU Jibun Bank Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the lowest in a year, from 49.0 in February, marking the ninth consecutive month below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. The overall business outlook slipped to the lowest since August 2020, with firms expressing worries about factors such as rising costs, labour shortages and uncertainty over the global trade environment. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian Stocks traded mixed on Monday as investors weighed the possibility of less severe trade tariffs under US. President Donald Trump.
Japan’s Nikkei 22 was down 0.15% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.42%,Hang Seng was up by 0.41%,
Commodities Recap
Gold dipped on Monday as traders awaited fresh catalysts after a recent rally pushed prices to record highs, fuelled by geopolitical concerns and hopes of U.S. rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,022.21 an ounce, as of 0526 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $3,026.30.
Oil prices fell on Monday as investors weighed the prospects of ceasefire talks in the Russia-Ukraine war, which could boost Russian oil supply to global markets.
Brent crude futures were down 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.91 a barrel by 0409 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 20 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.08.
