Market Roundup
• Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Apr): 1.6%, 0.8% forecast, -1.3% previous.
•Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Apr): -0.5%, -1.5% forecast, -2.9% previous.
•Japan Overall Wage Income (Apr): 3.5%, 3.1% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•Japan Overtime Pay (YoY) (Apr): 4.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.1% previous.
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.5%, 0.8% previous.
•Japan Coincident Index (MoM) (Apr): 1.1%, -1.7% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•Japan Leading Index (Apr): 115.9, 114.4 forecast, 114.0 previous.
•France Exports (Apr): 54.6B, 52.9B previous.
•France Imports (Apr): 60.2B, 59.3B previous.
•France Trade Balance (Apr): -5.6B, -6.2B forecast, -6.4B previous.
•France Current Account (Apr): -0.20B, -0.90B previous.
•France Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 1.4% previous.
•France Reserve Assets Total (May): 381.3B, 386.9B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
• 10:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q1): 0.8%, 1.2% previous.
• 10:00 EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q1): 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• 10:00 EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• 10:00 EU Employment Overall (Q1): 176,412.0K forecast, 172,571.6K previous.
•10:00 Greece Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q1): 8.3% previous.
•10:00 Greece GDP (YoY) (Q1): 2.4% previous.
•10:00 Greece GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.80% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as market assessed Middle East peace efforts. The Iran-backed Hezbollah militia rejected a new ceasefire in Lebanon on Thursday and Israel said it would not withdraw troops from the country, undermining U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to halt fighting there and reach a peace deal with Tehran.Focus now turns to the closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due later in the day.Market forecasts are for a solid rise of 85,000 in employment, keeping the jobless rate steady at 4.3%. Anything stronger would likely see the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike narrow further. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1648(May 25th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher but gains were limited on Friday as investors stayed cautious amid mixed geopolitical signals and a lack of fresh macro catalysts. Market participants largely remained on the sidelines following conflicting headlines around Iran-related peace negotiations, with renewed scepticism over ceasefire prospects adding to broader uncertainty in risk sentiment. Hezbollah’s rejection of a reported U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal further weighed on expectations for a near-term de-escalation, keeping markets defensive.Attention is now firmly focused on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report. Consensus expectations point to job growth of 85,000 with the unemployment rate seen steady at 4.3%..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3463(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3416(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3382(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased against dollar as investors reassessed geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Market sentiment was pressured after Hezbollah reportedly rejected a renewed U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposal, highlighting the challenges facing diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions in the region.Renewed hostilities this week, including exchanges between Iranian and U.S. forces, have lifted Brent crude above $90 a barrel, putting it on track for a weekly gain.Attention is now turning to the U.S. May non-farm payrolls report, due later on Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect employment growth of 85,000 jobs, and the data could significantly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has already hiked three times to 4.35% and Governor Michele Bullock seems content to watch and wait for now. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7146(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7173(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7104(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7062(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar traded in a narrow and nervous range on Friday as attention remains firmly on the risk of Japanese FX intervention.Reports suggest that PM Takaichi has effectively approved intervention if conditions warrant, reinforcing market sensitivity around the 160.00 level.Speculation is also building around the Bank of Japan’s policy path, with a June rate hike still in play and uncertainty over whether a July move could be pre-emptively signalled.Price action has been tightly contained, with USD/JPY trading around 159.98–160.01, just below recent highs near 160.09. The 160.00 handle remains a key battleground. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.11(June 5th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.67(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.15(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.98(SMA 20 ).
Equities Recap
Asian equities fell on Friday as investors booked profits in tech stocks and moved defensively ahead of the weekend, amid renewed concern over escalating Middle East tensions and stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.26% , Hang Seng was down at 1.06%, China A50 was down at 1.62%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday and were set for a weekly loss as Middle East tensions and stalled U.S.-Iran peace hopes weighed on sentiment, while inflation concerns and rate-hike expectations added further pressure to bullion.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,461.28 per ounce, as of 0718 GMT. It has fallen about 1.6% for the week so far.
Oil prices edged down after Oman said operations at Mina al Fahal port were proceeding normally, following a Reuters report that oil loadings had been suspended after an explosion.
Brent crude futures fell 24 cents, or 0.25%, to $94.79 a barrel by 0704 GMT after settling down 2.84% in the previous session.
