Market Roundup
• New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) (Q3) 1.9%,1.0%forecast, 1.4% previous
• New Zealand PPI Output (QoQ) (Q3)1.5%,0.9% forecast, 1.1% previous
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Sep) -4.8%,2.2% forecast, -3.4% previous
• Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Sep) -0.7%,1.4% forecast,-1.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Spanish Trade Balance (Sep) -4.80B previous
•10:00 EU Trade Balance (Sep) 7.9B forecast, 4.6B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
• 09:30 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
• 08:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as dollar rally stalled as market players awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. At least seven U.S. central bank officials are due to speak this week. Strong U.S. economic and inflation data continue to reshape the debate among Fed policymakers over the pace and extent of rate cuts as investors last week further downgraded their expectations for a rate reduction in December. Data on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, highlighting the economy's resilience. The euro slumped to its weakest since Nov. 2023 at $1.0546 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0611(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0671(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0538`(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0521(Lower BB)
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Monday as dollar rally paused as financial markets focused on comments from major central bank officials and incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs. On the data front, Housing starts kick off the U.S. data schedule on Tuesday, followed by weekly jobless claims, Philly Fed Business Conditions, and existing home sales on Thursday. Flash S&P Global PMIs and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations will complete a snapshot of the economy on Friday. The UK data calendar is busier with CPI, PPI, retail sales and PMIs. Bank of England policymakers. Dave Ramsden and Catherine Mann are due to speak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2683(SMA 5), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2723(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2592 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(My 14th low
AUD/USD: The Australian edged higher on Monday as investors awaited Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy for further direction. This week, the RBA will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting on Tuesday, followed by a speech from Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday. However, neither event is expected to significantly impact current market expectations on interest rates. Australian dollar is pinned near multi-month lows as recent U.S. data reinforced the view that the strength in the economy will limit the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Aussie edged 0.1% higher to $0.6473 on Monday, having ended last week down 1.8% in the biggest weekly drop in four months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6500(SMA 5), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6512(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6441(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6389(April 16th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar inched up against the yen on Monday after Japan's top central banker flagged further policy tightening ahead but left open the question of timing, leaving the market no clearer on whether a move would come next month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that interest rates would continue to rise gradually should the economy develop in line with the central bank's outlook. However, he made no mention of whether a hike would come in December, saying the BOJ would need to pay attention to various risks, including for the U.S. economy. Looking ahead Japan's October CPI on Friday will shape Bank of Japan rate expectations as the weak yen threatens to push up inflation. Machinery orders, trade figures and PMIs are also due. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.20(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.46(23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.70(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.50(SMA 21).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks began the week on firmer footing ahead of a highly anticipated earnings release from Nvidia.
At GMT 07:20 ,China A50 was up by 0.36%, South Korean KOSPI was up by 1.99%, while Hang Seng was down 0.80%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market players awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path.
Spot gold firmed 1.2% to $2,591.16 per ounce by 0444 GMT, after falling to its worst week in more than three years on Friday. U.S. gold futures were up 1% at $2,595.70.
Oil prices inched higher on Monday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend. However, concerns over weaker fuel demand in China, the world's second-largest consumer, and forecasts of a global oil surplus capped gains.
Brent crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.33 a barrel by 0502 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.20 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.3%.
