Market Roundup
•Australia Employment Change (Sep) 64.1K,- 25.2K forecast, 47.5K previous
•Australia Full Employment Change (Sep) 51.6K ,-5.9K previous
•Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -6,-1 previous
•Australia Participation Rate (Sep) 67.2%,- 67.1% forecast, 67.1% previous
•Australia Reserve Assets Total (Sep) 93.0B,- 93.1B previous
•Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.1%,- 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Aug) - 0.64B previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) - 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) - 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Sep) - 1.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Sep) - -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Sep) - 0.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep) - 2.0% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep) - 126.63 forecast, 126.72 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) - 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep) - 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU Trade Balance (Aug) - 17.8B forecast, 21.2B previous
•12:15 EUR Deposit Facility Rate (Oct) - 3.25% forecast,3.50% previous
•12:15 EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.90% previous
12:15 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) - 3.40% forecast, 3.65% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:15 EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday ahead of a monetary policy decision from the European Central Bank. The latest economic data is likely to have tilted the balance within the ECB in favour of a rate cut, with business activity and sentiment surveys as well as the inflation reading for September all coming in slightly lower than expected. A quarter-point cut on Thursday would lower the rate that the ECB pays on banks' deposits to 3.25% and money markets almost fullyprice in three further reductions through next March.Lagarde and colleagues are unlikely to drop clear hints about future moves on Thursday, repeating their mantra that decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0870(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0897(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0848(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0800(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Thursday after data showed that British inflation slowed more than expected in September, making it simpler for the Bank of England to reduce interest rates further this year. British inflation fell to 1.7% year on year in September from 2.2% in August, the lowest level since April 2021 and lower than poll's forecast of 1.9%. Headline CPI remained steady month on month, although closely monitored services inflation fell to 4.9% year on year. Expectations that the BoE would cut rates more slowly than the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank supported the pound earlier this year, though the gap has narrowed somewhat. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3054(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3123(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2981(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2928 (Lower BB).
NZD/USD: The New Zealand dollar traded near two month low against greenback on Thursday, as dismal inflation data fanned expectations of aggressive monetary easing.Annual inflation decreased to 2.2% in the third quarter from 3.3% the previous quarter, marking the first time in more than three years that inflation has fallen inside the RBNZ's target range of 1-3%. Swap traders are overwhelmingly betting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut by another 50 bps in November, although there is a small risk - about 5% - for a 75 bp move. At (GMT 06:38) Kiwi dollar was trading at up 0.10% at $0.6063 against the U.S. dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6116(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6161 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6059 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as resilience in the U.S. economy added to bets the Federal Reserve will be less aggressive in easing rates. The dollar has not only drawn support from a run of upbeat data on the U.S. economy which has in turn caused traders to scale back their expectations of Fed rate cut, but also on the possibility of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at next month's election. Looking ahead, U.S. retail sales figures for September and an interest rate announcement by the European Central Bank are due later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.83(Oct 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.70(38.2 %fib), a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
The Nikkei 225 finished down on Thursday, as semiconductor stocks fell despite industry leader TSMC posting better-than-expected profits, while investors waited for further quarterly results from local and international corporations for guidance.
The Nikkei 225 fell 0.7% to a one-week closing low of 38,911.19,
Commodities Recap
Gold hit an all-time high on Thursday, steered by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and expectations of more interest rate cuts by major central banks, while spotlight shifted to a slew of U.S. data.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,680.19 per ounce by 0458 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,685.60 earlier in the session.
Oil prices traded flat on Thursday as investors eye developments in the Middle East and more details on China's stimulus plans, and await the release of official U.S. oil inventory data.
Brent crude futures was down 4 cents to $74.18 a barrel by 0648 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.37 a barrel, down 2 cents.
