Market Roundup
•Japan Household Spending (MoM) (Feb) 3.5%, 0.5% forecast,-4.5% previous
•Japan Household Spending (YoY) (Feb) -0.5%, -0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Mar) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
• Sweden CPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.7%, -0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Sweden CPI (YoY) (Mar) 0.5%, 0.8% forecast, 1.3% previous
• Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.6% forecast, 2.9% previous
• Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) (Mar) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
• German Factory Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.0%, 3.4% forecast, -5.5% previous
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
• Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) -1.9%, -1.2% previous
• HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Mar) 52.4, 48.2 previous
• HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Mar) 40.3, 41.2 previous
• HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Mar) 43.8 ,39.8previous
• Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) -1.5%,0.9% previous
• Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast,-0.4%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:30 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 46.3 forecast, 44.6 previous
•08:30 UK Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ) -10.8B forecast, -12.5B previous
•09:30 French Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) -0.7% previous
•10:00 German Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) -6.4% previous
•11:00 Italian Car Registration (YoY) (Mar) -6.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Event Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Friday as investors weighed the impact of U.S. tariffs. Trump's latest tariff salvo has sparked an investor stampede for safe havens such as government bonds, the yen and gold as they hastily dumped risk assets. Data on Friday showed German industrial orders stagnated in February and the January data were upwardly revised, showing that Germany's industrial sector could have bottomed out but the recovery may be slow. Markets await the release of a monthly U.S. payrolls report later in the day that will offer clues to the health of the economy and the outlook for monetary easing. The euro edged down by 0.35% to $1.1095 after a 1.9% jump on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1074(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1156(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0935(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0865(19th March low).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against the dollar on Friday as investors grappled with prospects of a global recession after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on trading partners. Trump unveiled the sweeping set of penalties on allies and antagonists alike, roiling financial markets and stoking fears of a global trade war.Europe was hit with a 20% U.S. import tariff rate, prompting traders to increase their bets on interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank to shore up economic growth.A crucial March U.S. jobs report at 1230 GMT will be scrutinized to gauge the health of the world's biggest economy before the latest round of tariffs ignited recession fears. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3191(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2996(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2849(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell sharply on Friday as risk aversion sparked sharp reversal amid rising worries of a global recession triggered by tariffs. Recession fears gripped financial markets on Friday as stocks extended a global selloff following U.S. President Trump's broad tariffs. The impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs continued to hit equity markets hard, with analysts warning of a potential global recession. This is particularly troubling for the Antipodean economies, which depend on commodity exports to fuel their growth. At GMT 08:04, The Australian dollar was last trading down 1.86% to $0.6211. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6265(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6310(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6192(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6121(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped on Friday as demand for the safe-haven yen increased following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs, stoking fears of a full-blown trade war and a global recession. Trump's latest tariff measures triggered an investor rush into safe-haven assets, such as government bonds, the yen, and gold, as they quickly liquidated riskier assets. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank would closely monitor the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy when setting monetary policy. He cautioned that te higher tariffs are likely to weigh on both global and domestic economic growth. The BOJ's next policy meeting is scheduled for April 30-May 1, when the board will also release updated growth and inflation forecasts through fiscal 2027.Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.68(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.68(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.15(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dropped on Friday as concerns over a global recession, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, weighed on market sentiment.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 2.80% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.86%,Hang Seng was down by 1.52%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped on Friday as investors reevaluated their risk outlook following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures, which offered more clarity on market trends but sparked concerns about an economic slowdown.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,101.01 an ounce, as of 0710 GMT. Still, bullion was on track for a fifth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by its safe-haven appeal that aided gold to reach three record highs this week.U.S. gold futures edged 0.1% higher to $3,123.00.
Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Friday and were set for their worst week in months, as U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs fueled fears that a global trade war could dampen oil demand.
Brent futures fell $1.28 to $68.86 a barrel by 0703 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.29 to $65.66.
Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Friday and were on track for their worst week in months, as U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs fueled worries that a global trade war could dampen oil demand.
Brent futures fell $1.28 to $68.86 a barrel by 0703 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.29 to $65.66.
