Market Roundup
• UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.9%, 3.9% previous
•Sweden Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 53.6, 53.5 forecast, 53.6 previous
•Switzerland Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 1.6%, 1.5% forecast, 2.9% previous
•Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.5, 49.8 forecast, 49.7 previous
•Switzerland procure.ch PMI (Mar) 48.9, 50.4 forecast, 49.6 previous
•Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 46.6, 47.9 forecast, 47.4 previous
•France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.5, 48.9 forecast, 45.8 previous
•Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.3, 48.4 forecast, 46.5 previous
•Italy Monthly Unemployment Rate (Feb) 5.9%, 6.3% forecast, 6.2% previous
•Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 55.0, 52.6 previous
•Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.6, 48.7 forecast, 47.6 previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 44.9, 44.6 forecast, 46.9 previous
•Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.4%, 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous
•Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 1.0%, 0.5% previous
•Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.6%, 0.4% forecast
•Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Eurozone CPI, n.s.a (Mar) 128.04, 127.26 previous
•Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Mar) 2.4%, 2.6% previous
•Eurozone HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Mar) 0.8%, 0.5% previous
•Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Feb) 6.1%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 47.8 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.8 forecast, 52.7 previous
•14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Mar) 47.6 previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Mar) 48.6 previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.5 forecast, 50.3 previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Mar) 64.6 forecast, 62.4 previous
•14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) 7.690M forecast, 7.740M previous
•14:00 US Milk Auctions 4,245.0 previous
•14:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Apr) 50.1 forecast, 49.8 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Mar) 8.2 previous
•14:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Mar) 4.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Tuesday as sentiment remained cautious ahead of the impending U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Market focus is on the upcoming round of tariffs the White House is expected to announce on Wednesday, although details remain limited. Trump stated late Sunday that nearly all countries would face duties this week. In addition to the tariff news, investors are gearing up for a busy week ahead, with key economic reports, including jobs and payrolls data, potentially providing crucial insights into how the U.S. economy is performing under Trump’s second term. On the data front, Eurozone inflation eased in March, with core price pressures also declining. Consumer price growth slowed to 2.2% from 2.3% in February, in line with expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0854(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0969(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0661(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Tuesday as investors cautiously awaited details of U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Investors are hopeful that a deal between Britain and the U.S. will help mitigate the potential negative economic impact of the U.S. tariffs President Donald Trump is set to announce on April 2. Business minister Jonathan Reynolds said on Tuesday Britain is still hopeful that any tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will be reversed shortly, if the two sides can agree the outline of a new economic partnership. On the data front, British manufacturers endured a torrid March as the U.S. tariff threat and looming tax increases at home contributed to a plunge in new orders and ebbed optimism, a business survey showed on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3007(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3052(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2849(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2818(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held steady on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.1%, as expected. However, the central bank took a more dovish approach by removing its previous caution about further rate cuts. This decision followed a quarter-point rate cut in February, marking the first reduction in over four years. Governor Michele Bullock, in the post-decision press conference, said the board did not discuss a rate cut this time, and the slightly dovish turn in the statement did not open the door to an easing in May.The Aussie was last trading up 0.14% at $0.6255 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6313(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(March 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6258(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6232(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped against the yen on Tuesday, driven by concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming tariff announcement on April 2. Investors are anxiously awaiting the day, dubbed "Liberation Day" by Trump, when he is expected to unveil a massive reciprocal tariff plan. Meanwhile, Japan's factory activity continued to decline in March, as weakening demand and the escalating U.S. trade war clouded the manufacturing outlook. A private-sector survey showed Japan's final au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 in March from 49.0 in February, marking the lowest level in 12 months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.49(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.27(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.78(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares bounced back on Tuesday after hitting a two-month low in the previous session, though investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. reciprocal tariffs.
At GMT (12:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.79 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.28 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices continued their record surge on Tuesday, reaching an all-time high as safe-haven demand surged. Investors sought refuge in the precious metal ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's anticipated announcement on reciprocal tariffs.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,133.01 per ounce at 1147 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $3,148.88 earlier in the day.
Oil prices held steady near five-week highs on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and target Iran helped balance concerns over the potential effects of a trade war on global growth.
Brent futures were down 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $74.71 a barrel at 1208 GMT, after rising to above $75 a barrel earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $71.43.
