Market Roundup
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb) 2.5%, 1.9%forecast, -1.1% previous
• Japan Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Mar) 0.6%, 5.0% previous
• Japan Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) (Apr) 0.1%, -2.0% previous
• Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.5% ,0.5% previous
• Japan Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (YoY) (Feb) 2.0%,5.0% previous
• Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 1.4%,2.4% forecast,4.4% previous
• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Mar) 57.5, 58.4 previous
• New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Mar) 48.6%, 45.1% previous
•Australia Housing Credit (Feb) 0.4%, 0.4% previous
•Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%,0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Chinese Composite PMI (Mar) 51.4,51.1 previous
•Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.5 , 50.4 forecast, 50.2 previous
•Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 50.8,50.5 forecast, 50.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•06:00 German Import Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.0% forecast, 1.1% previous
•06:00 German Import Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 3.1% previous
•06:00 German Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.0% forecast,0.2% previous
•06:00 German Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb) 2.9% previous
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.5% previous
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.5% previous
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% previous
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.4% previous
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.3% previous
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.6% previous
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.3% previous
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% previous
•08:30 UK M3 Money Supply (Feb) 3,125.9B previous
•08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Feb) 1.1% forecast,1.3% previous
•08:30 UK Mortgage Approvals (Feb) 66.00K forecast, 66.19K previous
•08:30 UK Mortgage Lending (Feb) 4.21B previous
•08:30 UK Net Lending to Individuals (Feb) 4.900B forecast, 5.947B previous
•09:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•09:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.1% previous
•12:00 German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:00 German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.3% previous
•12:00 German HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.5% previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro gained some ground against the dollar on Monday as investors assessed the risks of upcoming U.S. trade tariffs. On Sunday, President Donald Trump stated that the reciprocal tariffs he plans to announce will affect all countries, not just a smaller group of 10 to 15 with the largest trade imbalances. Trump is expected to unveil a major tariff plan on Wednesday, which he has referred to as Liberation Day. He has already imposed tariffs on aluminum, steel, and autos, as well as increased tariffs on all goods from China. Many economists are concerned that these tariffs could negatively impact the U.S. economy, while also limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce interest rates due to rising inflation in the short term. The euro was steady at $1.0830. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0854(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0969(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0661(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Monday as the dollar dipped, amid concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans could spark a global trade war and economic fallout. Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, with auto tariffs to begin on April 3. Further escalating global trade war worries, Trump expressed frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, stating he would impose secondary tariffs of 25% to 50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is obstructing his efforts to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, a British government spokesperson reported that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump had a productive discussion regarding a potential trade deal during a phone call on Sunday. Sterling added 0.17% to $1.2952. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3007(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3052(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2849(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2818(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of an impending U.S. announcement on tariffs and a central bank meeting in Australia that could provide hints on the future direction of interest rates. Trump said late on Sunday that the reciprocal tariffs set to be announced on Wednesday would essentially affect all countries, quashing market hopes that the levies would be limited.On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on its latest policy move. While it is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 4.1%, some analysts are anticipating a softening of its hawkish tone, which could signal the possibility of a rate cut in May. At GMT 06:05, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.12% to $0.6275. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6313(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(March 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6258(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6232(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased on Monday as demand for the safe-haven yen on concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could trigger inflation and stifle economic growth. Markets are on edge ahead of a new round of reciprocal tariffs that the White House is set to announce on Wednesday. While details remain scarce, Trump said late on Sunday that duties would be imposed on essentially all countries this week. On Friday, Trump had indicated he was open to negotiating deals with countries looking to avoid tariffs, but the Washington Post reported over the weekend that he was urging his advisers to adopt a more aggressive approach. The yen was up as much as 0.35% at 149.30 per U.S. dollar at one point on Monday, and was last 0.2% stronger at 149.5. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.10(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.12(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.39(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.37(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks tumbled on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that tariffs would essentially apply to all countries, raising concerns that a global trade war could trigger a recession.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 3.92% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 2.89%,Hang Seng was down by 1.71%
Commodities Recap
Gold hit an all-time high on Monday as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset, driven by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger a global trade war and economic fallout.
Spot gold was up 0.6% to $3,103.63 an ounce, as of 0255 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,107.26 earlier. Bullion is up over 8% in March.
Oil prices slipped on Monday, heading for a modest quarterly loss, despite a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump that he may impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Brent crude futures fell 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $72.46 a barrel by 0330 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $69.03 a barrel. Front-month Brent , which was down 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $73.36, expires later on Monday.
