Europe Roundup: Pound steadies as investors await key UK budget update, European shares rise, Gold little changed, Oil firms -March 24th,2025

Market Roundup

•HCOB France Composite PMI (Mar) 47.0, 45.1 previous

•HCOB France Services PMI (Mar) 46.6, 46.3 forecast, 45.3 previous

•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Mar) 50.9, 51.2 forecast, 50.4 previous

•HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.3, 47.1 forecast, 46.5 previous

•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Mar) 50.2, 52.3 forecast, 51.1 previous

•Greek Current Account (YoY) (Jan) 1.017B, -3.602B previous

•HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 48.7, 48.3 forecast, 47.6 previous

•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Mar) 50.4, 50.8 forecast, 50.2 previous

•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Mar) 50.4, 51.2 forecast, 50.6 previous

•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 52.0, 50.3 forecast, 50.5 previous

•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 44.6, 47.3 forecast, 46.9 previous

•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 53.2, 51.2 forecast, 51.0 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)

•13:45 USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 51.9 forecast, 52.7 previous

•:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 51.6 previous

•13:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 51.2 forecast, 51.0 previous

•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.279% previous

•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.348% previous

•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.306% previous

•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.205% previous

•15:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 4.100% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)

• 17:45  US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks                                                            

•18:00   UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks                                                           

• 19:10  US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks 

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the dollar on Monday as traders cautiously awaited clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump's next round of tariffs. Last week, the shared currency reached its highest level since early October at $1.0955, driven by optimism over Germany’s decision to ease fiscal constraints to boost military and infrastructure spending. However, it retreated in recent days ahead of the official ratification of the change, with Germany's upper house of parliament approving the bill on the so-called debt brake on Friday.Meanwhile, data showed that euro zone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in seven months in March. HCOB's preliminary composite euro zone Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by S&P Global, inched up to 50.4 in March from 50.2 in February, marking its highest level since August. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound climbed against dollar on Monday as investors awaited Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' spring budget update later this week. Earlier data showed business activity in the UK’s services sector picked up this month, boosting sentiment. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower its UK economic growth forecast for this year, while higher borrowing costs may lead Reeves to scale back planned spending increases in the coming years. On Sunday, Reeves reaffirmed her commitment to fiscal rules despite global uncertainty, raising concerns about potential public sector job cuts in this week's budget update, which is likely to include additional savings.At GMT, the British pound  rose 0.45% to $1.2973. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)

AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against dollar on Monday as traders awaited Australia’s Federal budget and monthly inflation data for further rate policy clarity. The Australian government is poised to announce a return to deficit on Tuesday, ending a two-year surplus streak, as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese rolls out house old measures aimed at strengthening his re-election bid.Looking ahead , Australia’s February inflation data is due on Wednesday, with forecasts predicting a 2.5% annual increase.Focus will be on the trimmed mean measure, which includes key service sectors where price pressures remain high.At GMT 05:43, The Australian dollar  was last  trading up 0.16% to $0.6279. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6347(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6392(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).

 USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as disappointing Japan’s business activity data weighed on yen. Japan’s factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in a year in March, as declines in production and new orders signaled economic weakness, according to a private-sector survey released Monday. The AU Jibun Bank Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the lowest in a year, from 49.0 in February, marking the ninth consecutive month below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. The overall business outlook slipped to the lowest since August 2020, with firms expressing worries about factors such as rising costs, labour shortages and uncertainty over the global trade environment.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.82(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.50(61.8%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.11(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.34(Lower BB).

Equities Recap          

European shares climbed on Monday after data showed that euro zone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in seven months in March, boosting investor sentiment. Meanwhile, markets remained focused on gaining further clarity on U.S. tariffs.

At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.16 percent, Germany's Dax was upby 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.05 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices held steady on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.

Spot gold   was at $3,026.85 an ounce at 1131 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 edged 0.4% higher to $3,032.40.

Oil prices rose in volatile trading on Monday as investors balanced the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports against ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine, which could boost the supply of Russian crude to global markets.

Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.52 a barrel by 1004 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 40 cents, or 0.6%, at $68.68.