Market Roundup
• New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Feb) 59.20%, 60.10% forecast, 59.30% previous
•Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Jan) -10.00, 7.40 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Jan) 5.150B forecast, 5.980B previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Jan) -1.86B previous
•10:00 UK 4-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.294% previous
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Mar) -80.5 forecast, -88.5 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) 48.1 forecast,26.0 previous
•10:00 EU Trade Balance (Jan) 14.0B forecast, 15.5B previous
•10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) 43.6 forecast, 24.2 previous
•11:30 Spanish Trade Balance (Jan) -4.12B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded near a five-month high on Tuesday ahead of an expected vote on Germany's massive stimulus proposal. Germany's constitutional court on Monday threw out new challenges by opposition parties against a plan by the prospective coalition government to push a massive public borrowing initiative through the outgoing parliament.The decision paved the way for parliament to convene on Tuesday to consider the matter. Investors were also focused on the outcome of Ukraine-Russian cease-fire talks, which could translate to lower energy costs for Europe. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0804(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0693(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose on Tuesday as investors positioned for a series of central bank decisions this week, including the Bank of England's policy meeting. The Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday and stick to its mantra of only gradual moves ahead as it grapples with the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and mixed news on Britain's economy.While there has been limited news on Britain's economy since the BoE's last rate cut on Feb. 6, Trump's stop-start announcements of tariffs on U.S. allies have thrown financial markets into a tailspin and raised questions about the outlook for inflation around the world.Data published last week showed Britain's economy contracted unexpectedly in January but there was also a noticeable jump in public expectations for near- and long-term inflation.The Monetary Policy Committee will have early access to labour market figures that are due to be published on the morning of Thursday's interest rate announcement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was little changed on Tuesday as investors assessed the economic risks of rising global trade tensions. This week, central banks in the U.S., Britain, and Japan meet with no policy changes expected, but rising trade tensions add uncertainty. Australia’s central bank stated on Tuesday that it remains more cautious than markets on further policy easing, following its first rate cut in over four years last month. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% in its February meeting, citing the need to stay in line with other central banks that had already begun easing.At GMT 07:43, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.02% to $0.6384. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6389(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6382(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6351(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6304(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Tuesday as Japanese yen weakened amid risk-on sentiment spurred by Wall Street's gains overnight. The market rout and fears of a global slowdown caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy are overshadowing wage and price data showing Japan is making progress towards durably achieving the BOJ's 2% inflation target. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while assessing the risks that the escalating U.S. trade war poses to Japan’s export-driven economy. The BOJ is set to maintain its short-term policy rate at 0.5% at a two-day meeting that ends on Wednesday. At GMT 07.45,the dollar was up 0.46% at 149.82 against Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.84(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.84(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.22(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.25(March 17th low).
Equities Recap
Asian shares climbed on Tuesday as investors grew optimistic about China’s outlook, buoyed by recent economic data and government pledges to boost consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.
Japan’s Nikkei 22 was up 1.24% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.06 %,Hang Seng was down by 2.34 %,
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a record high on Tuesday, extending its rally above $3,000, as escalating global uncertainties and trade tensions drove investors toward the safe-haven asset.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,017.84 an ounce as of 0715 GMT after hitting a record high of $3,018.66. Prices climbed above $3,000 for the first time March 14. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $3,027.00.
Oil prices inched higher on Tuesday, driven by Middle East instability and China’s economic stimulus plans, though gains were limited by global growth concerns, U.S. tariffs, and uncertainty over Ukraine ceasefire talks.
Brent futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $71.43 a barrel by 0700 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $67.90.
